7908 Tokay #107 · Fontana, CA 92336

$141,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1976

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2 bedrooms, 2bath manufactured home located in desirable Fontana community. Recently remodelled kitchen. The home also features additional rooms. No need to trek ouside for laundry xhores, as the laundry room is conveniently situated inside near the kitchen. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify permits and square footage.

Key facts

• Laundry room inside
• Remodelled kitchen
• Additional rooms

Tags

• REMODELLED KITCHEN
• ADDITIONAL ROOMS
• LAUNDRY ROOM INSIDE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fontana Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #156 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $981 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,219 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.90%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $49,157
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $131,645
• Equity at exit: $12,277

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92336

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$177 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $1,156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $141,999

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,254	-5% $1,205	+0% $1,156	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,058
Rent	-10% $942	-5% $1,049	+0% $1,156	+5% $1,263	+10% $1,370
Rate	-1.0pp $1,228	-0.5pp $1,192	base $1,156	+0.5pp $1,119	+1.0pp $1,082

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8415 Tokay Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,300	$2.74	25d	1	0.64mi
15830 Jackson Dr Unit 2 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,900	$3.87	25d	1	0.72mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 3-321 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,675	$1.99	44d	1	0.78mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 1-205 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,795	$2.08	22d	1	0.78mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 3-224 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,563	$1.91	22d	1	0.78mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 1-207 Fontana, CA	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,395	$2.20	20d	1	0.78mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 1-302 Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	916	$1,920	$2.10	22d	1	0.78mi
16220 Arrow Blvd Unit 2-311 Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	916	$2,175	$2.37	44d	1	0.78mi
8560 Oleander Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	2.0	975	$2,195	$2.25	44d	1	0.93mi
7199 Citrus Ave Fontana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$2,500	$3.25	0d	11	0.96mi
8600 Citrus Ave Fontana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$2,199	$2.87	6d	1	0.96mi
7155 Citrus Ave Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5–3.0	1554	$3,048	$1.96	25d	2	0.97mi
16425 Arrow Blvd Fontana, CA	2.0	2.5	860	$2,600	$3.02	25d	1	0.98mi
16408 Valencia Ave #816 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,200	$2.18	25d	1	0.98mi
16408 Valencia Ave Unit 511 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,200	$2.18	25d	1	0.98mi
8244 Beech Ave Unit 8 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,795	$2.11	25d	1	1.00mi
8244 Beech Ave Unit 6 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,495	$2.50	44d	1	1.00mi
16534 Arrow Blvd Unit 10 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5	1275	$2,850	$2.24	25d	1	1.05mi
16385 Valencia Ave Unit 3 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5	1298	$2,995	$2.31	44d	1	1.05mi
16787 Miller Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,646	$2.06	6d	2	1.07mi
16594 Arrow Blvd Fontana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	690	$1,790	$2.59	5d	3	1.09mi
15912 Chase Rd Fontana, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1193	$2,895	$2.43	0d	8	1.10mi
16674 Arrow Blvd Unit 19 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,890	$2.36	44d	1	1.15mi
16870 Reed St Apt 2 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.5	1100	$2,495	$2.27	44d	1	1.18mi
16265 Plum St #2 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,000	$2.50	13d	1	1.19mi
16645 Valencia Ave Unit 2B Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,285	$2.66	21d	1	1.25mi
16296 Merrill Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,960	$2.30	25d	1	1.27mi
14951 Foothill Blvd Fontana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$3,149	$3.63	0d	11	1.31mi
8972 Catawba Ave Fontana, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,600	$2.41	44d	1	1.33mi
16007 Merrill Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	863	$2,025	$2.35	44d	5	1.33mi
8806 Chantry Ave Fontana, CA	3.0	1.0	1250	$2,995	$2.40	22d	1	1.34mi
14817 Foothill Blvd Fontana, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$3,211	$2.97	0d	33	1.36mi
17015 Ivy Ave Unit 17015-F Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	25d	1	1.40mi
17015 Ivy Ave Unit 17026-A Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,095	$2.49	25d	1	1.40mi
17015 Ivy Ave Unit 17046-C Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	820	$1,995	$2.43	25d	1	1.40mi
17026 Ivy Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	860	$2,045	$2.38	17d	3	1.42mi
16488 Pine Forest St Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1172	$3,000	$2.56	2d	1	1.42mi
15356 Merrill Ave Unit 1 Fontana, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	44d	1	1.43mi
15356 Merrill Ave Unit 3 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,195	$2.46	2d	1	1.43mi
15356 Merrill Ave Unit 3 Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,195	$2.46	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,999 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,999 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,999 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,999 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,999 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,999 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,999 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,999 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $141,999 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $141,999 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $141,999 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $141,999 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $141,999 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,999 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    listed $141,999 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Well-maintained 2 bedrooms, 2bath manufactured home located in desirable Fontana community. Recently remodelled kitchen. The home also features additional rooms. No need to trek ouside for laundry xhores, as the laundry room is conveniently situated inside near the kitchen. Buyer and buyer's agent to verify permits and square footage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,598
• − Management: −$2,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $12,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,964
• After-tax cash flow: $10,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fontana Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613920
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 30.00%
• Median HH income: $53,912
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #3510
• State rank: #156 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fontana

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #14177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fontana, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 203,028
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 105,517
• Household income: $123,363
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1664.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 17% White 17% Asian 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.62%
• Current HPI: 393.5466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.44%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $141,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $138 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.