779 County Road 95 Rd · Valley Grande, AL 36749

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1960 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 acres of land and a work shop. .. .. .county living at its best

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.1% in Valley Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Autauga County (rural): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #34 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Autauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Autauga County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.14%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $53,143
• Equity at exit: $54,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $135,820
• Equity at exit: $105,751

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36749

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $339/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $408	+0% $387	+5% $366	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $345	+0% $387	+5% $429	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $406	base $387	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-12-20
   soldstatus $87,500
2. 2020-11-25
   historical
3. 2020-07-15
   listed $74,900
4. 2019-09-24
   listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$339
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $3,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$869
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Autauga County
• NCES district ID: 0100240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5892
• State rank: #34 of 129 in AL

Livability — Valley Grande

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,358
• Population (ZIP): 770

Population outlook (Autauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,958 people
• By 2030: 55,810 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 54,892 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 53,062 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 49,425 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 45,110 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 34% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Scottish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Autauga

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.4% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 141.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+10.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2020-11-25 Delisted — MAAR
• 2020-07-15 Listed $74,900 MAAR
• 2019-09-24 Listed $79,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+29.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $339 · -48.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.