198 Burnett · Winlock, WA 98596

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Other public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1968 1.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed/1 bath home on almost 2 acres surrounded by marketable timber. Nice place to build the home of your dreams or cozy up in the existing mobile that has heat pump/wood stove, A/C, newer LVP. Take in the privacy as you are surrounded by trees. There is covered RV parking and a shop for your projects too! Call today and schedule a tour.

Key facts

• Marketable timber
• Covered rv parking
• Surrounded by trees

Tags

• MARKETABLE TIMBER
• COVERED RV PARKING
• SHOP FOR YOUR PROJECTS
• SURROUNDED BY TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior exemption applies
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; RV parking available; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Individual well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric and wood energy sources
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Manufactured on land (residential); One story with main-level entry
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Garden space and wooded vegetation; RV parking; On-site shop

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Wood stove / free-standing stove
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Refrigerator included; Stove/Range included
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($778/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Winlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#247 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Winlock School District (rural): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #248 of 291 in WA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winlock Miller Elementary (442 students, 74% FRL); Winlock Middle School (181 students, 76% FRL); Winlock Senior High (235 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,007 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,558
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,060
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98596

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,173/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $118	+0% $65	+5% $11	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $3	+0% $65	+5% $126	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $113	base $65	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 339-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $189,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$679/yr (+$57/mo · 57.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,173
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$595
• After-tax cash flow: $1,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winlock School District
• NCES district ID: 5309930
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,036
• Composite: 32.95/100
• National rank: #10689
• State rank: #248 of 291 in WA

Livability — Winlock

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #7893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,276

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.46%
• Current HPI: 240.7257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $189,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,173 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.