324 Aileen Ave · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $171k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in Lamplighter Senior Mobile Home Park. 2 bedroom 2 bath home. Newly painted inside. New dish washer. Laundry room includes washer and dryer. Close to shopping.

Key facts

• Window coverings
• Large kitchen
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LARGE KITCHEN
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• WINDOW COVERINGS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $624
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide
• Construction: Western Homes manufacturer; Delaware Western Homes make
• Exterior features: Located in a mobile home park; Land lease (monthly)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taylor Mountain Elementary (444 students, 81% FRL); Elsie Allen High (1,055 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 22% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,315 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.26%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Aileen Ave	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	0mo	$105,000	$95	89
220 Ricardo Ave	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	1mo	$179,000	$163	84
324 Aileen Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+2%)	21mo	$173,500	$164	80
205 Pear Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+6%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	76
196 Pear Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (+6%)	14mo	$165,000	$149	70
38 Wayside Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	68
3050 El Toro Way	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	18mo	$188,500	$189	63
116 Coachman Ln #27	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+1%)	11mo	$237,950	$227	59
273 Aileen Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	900 (-14%)	17mo	$120,000	$133	57
2313 Calico Ln #67	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	16mo	$187,000	$173	56
55 Wayside Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	940 (-10%)	2mo	$105,000	$112	52
146 N Star Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	11mo	$157,000	$164	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $32,623
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $107,067
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,073	-5% $1,022	+0% $972	+5% $921	+10% $870
Rent	-10% $768	-5% $870	+0% $972	+5% $1,073	+10% $1,175
Rate	-1.0pp $1,062	-0.5pp $1,017	base $972	+0.5pp $925	+1.0pp $878

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
524 Court St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1171	$2,750	$2.35	15d	1	0.14mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	15d	10	0.17mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	15d	6	0.22mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,852	$2.49	15d	15	0.40mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	15d	1	0.46mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	15d	1	0.67mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	15d	27	0.68mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	15d	1	0.69mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	15d	1	0.69mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	15d	1	0.72mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	15d	1	0.72mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	15d	8	0.77mi
2150 Onyx Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$3,000	$2.42	22d	1	0.86mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	15d	3	0.99mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	15d	1	1.07mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	15d	1	1.07mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	15d	1	1.07mi
517 Debbie Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,000	$2.49	22d	1	1.13mi
1053 Dutton Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$2,200	$2.59	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 581-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 553-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 129.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $9,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,216
• After-tax cash flow: $9,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $179,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $190,000 BAREIS
• 2024-10-02 Sold (MLS) $173,500 BAREIS
• 2024-09-30 Pending — BAREIS
• 2024-09-22 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $179,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $189,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.