23314 Sawmill Pass · Spring, TX 77373

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,033 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2016 5,749 sqft lot $133/sqft · 23% below area Est $352k · 23% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming NEW DR Horton home in a fabulous location! This great one story 4 bedroom has it all! Wonderful open floor plan with a bonus room! Designer details include beautiful granite kitchen countertops, stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile flooring, 2'' blinds, just to name a few! This home has a full landscape package as well! Call today to make your appointment to check out this one of a kind brand NEW property! You don't want to miss this one!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Dual vanities
• Split floorplan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features: radiant attic barrier, efficient HVAC, efficient lighting, efficient windows
• HOA & community: Has association (Chaparral Mgmt Co); Annual association fee of $511; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on first floor); Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2016; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard with backyard fencing; Sprinkler / irrigation system; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Pantry / Walk-in pantry; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15x15); Bedroom on first floor (11x11); Bedroom on first floor (10x11); Bedroom on first floor (12x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry / Walk-in pantry; Separate shower; Window treatments; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gloria Marshall El (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 953 students, 81% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,327 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,356
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -20.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 Ski Lodge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,958 (-4%)	11mo	$265,000	$135	69
4802 Hickorygate Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (+4%)	8mo	$128,000	$61	53
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-8%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	49
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	38
23803 Ironside Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,822 (-10%)	14mo	$250,000	$137	33
23611 Blodgett Peak Trl	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-14%)	24mo	$275,000	$157	25
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (-14%)	21mo	$225,000	$129	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-66,710
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-105,423
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$604 /mo · $7,248/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,753

Max offer price $225,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-176	+0% $-252	+5% $-329	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-348	+0% $-252	+5% $-156	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-184	base $-252	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Pending 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Pending 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $269,900 Pending 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-01-13
    price $279,500 778-char remark
13. 2025-09-28
    price $289,500 778-char remark
14. 2025-08-27
    listed $299,500 Active 778-char remark
15. 2016-08-24
    soldstatus Sold 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Charming NEW DR Horton home in a fabulous location! This great one story 4 bedroom has it all! Wonderful open floor plan with a bonus room! Designer details include beautiful granite kitchen countertops, stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile flooring, 2'' blinds, just to name a few! This home has a full landscape package as well! Call today to make your appointment to check out this one of a kind brand NEW property! You don't want to miss this one!

16. 2016-08-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Charming NEW DR Horton home in a fabulous location! This great one story 4 bedroom has it all! Wonderful open floor plan with a bonus room! Designer details include beautiful granite kitchen countertops, stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile flooring, 2'' blinds, just to name a few! This home has a full landscape package as well! Call today to make your appointment to check out this one of a kind brand NEW property! You don't want to miss this one!

17. 2016-07-12
    listed $195,990 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Charming NEW DR Horton home in a fabulous location! This great one story 4 bedroom has it all! Wonderful open floor plan with a bonus room! Designer details include beautiful granite kitchen countertops, stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile flooring, 2'' blinds, just to name a few! This home has a full landscape package as well! Call today to make your appointment to check out this one of a kind brand NEW property! You don't want to miss this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,248 · $604/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,248 · $604/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$7,248
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,336
• − Management: −$2,336
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$7,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,813
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+37.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $289,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2016-08-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-08-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-12 Listed $195,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+27.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,248 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.