Is 2119 Starlight St in Cove, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.5% cap rate and $-591/mo modeled cash flow at a $299,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2119 Starlight St?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,822/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 35.17

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.0/30.0
Schools +6.9/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$299,990

2119 Starlight St · Cove, TX 77523

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,542 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,442 sqft lot Garage $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully finished Reeves plan in Windrose Green, offering 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 2,542 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept main floor connects the kitchen, dining, and family room—perfect for entertaining—featuring quartz countertops, rich Marvel cabinetry, a stainless steel undermount sink, and durable Mohawk RevWood flooring. A private flex room downstairs adds versatility, while upstairs includes a spacious game room and secondary bedrooms. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a separate tub and shower, and the covered patio extends your living outdoors.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Private flex room
Spacious game room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.51%
Cash-on-cash: -6.38%
DSCR: 0.72
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $397,356
List price: $299,990
Delta: -24.50%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6918 Bens Lndg	1.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,536 (-0%)	2mo	$319,440	$126	58
15110 Cibolo Ln	0.79mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,616 (+3%)	6mo	$499,990	$191	50
15038 Diamond Way	1.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,559 (+1%)	24mo	$349,900	$137	37
6906 Bens Lndg	1.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-13%)	3mo	$304,640	$137	36
7118 Thomas James Ct	0.98mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-13%)	4mo	$326,130	$147	35
15227 Victoria	1.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,186 (-14%)	2mo	$288,000	$132	35
15126 Arenosa Ave	1.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,002 (+18%)	15mo	$639,990	$213	20
15210 Harlin	0.99mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,047 (-20%)	18mo	$275,000	$134	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.8%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-100,770
Equity at exit: $59,247

10-year hold

IRR: -22.8%
Equity multiple: -0.18×
Total profit: $-130,935
Equity at exit: $34,356

Cash invested: $111,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 20 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 40.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $497,490 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 130 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -16.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

Home prices YoY: -31.5%
Rents YoY: 3.4%
Active inventory: 1018
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,822 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,084
Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,960/yr
Insurance: −$166
HOA: −$75
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,571

Max offer price $311,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-454	+0% $-591	+5% $-729	+10% $-866
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-703	+0% $-591	+5% $-480	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-490	base $-591	+0.5pp $-694	+1.0pp $-799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $99,339
Closing costs: $11,921
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	75d	1	1.00mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	38d	1	1.03mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	139d	1	1.09mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	97d	1	1.34mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	54d	1	1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Builder: Coventry HomesLiving area approximately 2,542
HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark Community ManagementAnnual association fee of $900

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySecurity system ownedSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertySouth-facingUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yardLot within a subdivisionConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenGas cooktopMicrowaveGarbage disposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 12)Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (11 x 11; 11 x 10; 10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)HVAC includedThermostat (programmable)
Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with private bathWalk-in pantrySeparate shower and tub-shower combinationCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-12

days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-07

price $299,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $353,212 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $353,212 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $353,212 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $353,212 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $353,212 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $353,212 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $353,212 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $353,212 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $353,212 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $353,212 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $353,212 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $353,212 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $353,212 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $353,212 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $353,212 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $353,212 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $353,212 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $353,212 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $353,212 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $353,212 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $353,212 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $353,212 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $353,212 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $353,212 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $353,212 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $353,212 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $353,212 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $353,212 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $353,212 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $353,212 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $353,212 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $353,212 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $353,212 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $353,212 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $353,212 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $353,212 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $353,212 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $353,212 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $353,212 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $353,212 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $353,212 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $353,212 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $353,212 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $353,212 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $33,868
− Mortgage interest: −$22,258
− Property taxes: −$5,960
− Insurance: −$1,987
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,709
− Management: −$2,709
− HOA: −$900
− Depreciation: −$11,559
Taxable loss: −$14,216

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,412
After-tax cash flow: $-3,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,710–$38,130 screening

This Reeves plan in Windrose Green is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves durability and appearance. ↑
Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics in bathrooms. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbers Hill El South B+ TX #246/4,322 Nat'l #5,107/41,679 Middle Barbers Hill Middle South A TX #58/1,662 Nat'l #819/14,009 High Barbers Hill H S B+ TX #95/1,632 Nat'l #1,878/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Barbers Hill ISD
NCES district ID: 4809450
Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $87,257
Composite: 61.73/100
National rank: #737
State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

Score: 64/100
State rank: #766
US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Cove, TX
County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,186
Household income: $124,188
Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,946 people
By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
Current HPI: 222.6999
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-25 Listed $353,212 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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