16170 Kenwood Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$210,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1982 0.42 ac lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $262k · 20% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Established neighborhood in desirable school district. Property being sold ''As Is.'' Buyer and Buyers Agent to verify any and all information.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,256
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -19.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12072 Kent Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,322 (+14%)	2mo	$260,000	$112	62
16145 Kenwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,333 (+14%)	2mo	$229,900	$99	61
12281 Amanda Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-11%)	4mo	$245,000	$135	57
12152 Kencrest Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,296 (+12%)	21mo	$315,900	$138	47
16426 Orange Grove Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,134 (+5%)	12mo	$265,000	$124	47
16123 Brookfield Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,320 (+14%)	8mo	$312,228	$135	45
11439 Oak Aly	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,092 (+2%)	23mo	$292,830	$140	43
15465 N Parkwood Dr	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,830 (-10%)	12mo	$190,000	$104	42
11426 Old Highway 49	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,109 (+3%)	22mo	$296,500	$141	41
16138 Brookfield Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-14%)	14mo	$246,000	$141	38
15652 S Parkwood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-11%)	17mo	$227,777	$125	30
16434 Orange Grove Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,209 (+8%)	22mo	$267,900	$121	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,377
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $34,586
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11601 Oaklane Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,525	$0.97	13d	1	0.63mi
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	43d	2	0.66mi
13415 John Clark Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	2067	$2,090	$1.01	43d	1	1.07mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.08mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	20d	1	1.08mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.08mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.08mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	20d	1	1.10mi
10466 Steeplechase Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	13d	1	1.35mi
11571 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,000	$1.03	43d	1	1.38mi
10667 Wren Grv Gulfport, MS	4.0	3.0	2076	$2,850	$1.37	43d	1	1.40mi
11604 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,850	$1.11	44d	1	1.41mi
16222 Saddle Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,600	$0.95	20d	1	1.42mi
10749 Chapelwood Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,250	$0.98	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2025-10-17
    historical
16. 2025-09-12
    price $210,000
17. 2025-08-18
    status Active
18. 2025-08-13
    status Pending
19. 2025-07-22
    price $220,000
20. 2025-05-29
    status Active
21. 2025-05-01
    status Pending
22. 2025-04-16
    listed $230,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Established neighborhood in desirable school district. Property being sold ''As Is.'' Buyer and Buyers Agent to verify any and all information.

23. 2025-04-16
    listed $210,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Established neighborhood in desirable school district. Property being sold ''As Is.'' Buyer and Buyers Agent to verify any and all information.

24. 2025-02-13
    soldstatus
25. 2022-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$1,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $210,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-08-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $220,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-29 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-04-16 Listed $210,000 MLSU
• 2025-04-16 Listed $230,000 MLSU
• 2025-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,670 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.