21922 Ottawa Rd #14 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 81 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition $87/sqft · 121% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next chapter in Apple Valley living! This freshly listed two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home delivers 800 square feet of smart, stylish living. The home is in excellent condition and sits on a generous lot with plenty of outdoor space to create your dream backyard oasis, add a shed, or enjoy the open area. Parking is a breeze, and the space lease stays refreshingly low, keeping more money in your pocket monthly. Apple Valley Ranchos is open to all age groups and pets. Everyone will love the proximity to High Desert Premier Academy and a nearby park perfect for weekend adventures. Whether you are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer seeking affordability, or someone embracing a simplified lifestyle, this home checks every box. Opportunities like this move fast in today's market. Schedule your tour today before someone else claims your new home! Seller is Motivated.

Key facts

• Built 1967
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,329 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.73%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $31,384
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: 121.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22325 US Highway 18 #7	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (-12%)	6mo	$49,500	$71	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $44,400
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $116,880
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13193 Navajo Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	614	$1,350	$2.20	43d	1	0.33mi
13192 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,850	$1.96	43d	1	0.37mi
13192 Navajo Rd #3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	944	$1,795	$1.90	24d	1	0.39mi
13073 Navajo Rd Unit A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	24d	1	0.43mi
13583 Algonquin Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	43d	1	0.49mi
21601 Powhatan Rd Unit 10 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,550	$1.85	43d	1	0.50mi
13584 Yakima Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,568	$1.69	24d	1	0.60mi
19142 California 18 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	0.61mi
13464 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	937	$1,799	$1.92	18d	1	0.79mi
13116 Mohawk Rd Apt 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,800	$2.06	5d	1	0.83mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,849	$2.47	5d	1	0.99mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,850	$2.47	24d	1	0.99mi
21061 Nisqually Rd Unit C Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,750	$1.71	43d	1	1.21mi
13191 Kiowa Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,895	$1.94	24d	1	1.29mi
13191 Kiowa Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,650	$1.89	24d	1	1.29mi
13191 Kiowa Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,650	$1.98	43d	1	1.29mi
20955 Little Beaver Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	24d	1	1.46mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 21 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,195	$1.81	1d	1	1.46mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 21 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,195	$1.81	10d	1	1.46mi
22526 Sioux Rd Unit 12 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.5	930	$1,495	$1.61	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,500 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,500 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $69,500 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Welcome to your next chapter in Apple Valley living! This freshly listed two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home delivers 800 square feet of smart, stylish living. The home is in excellent condition and sits on a generous lot with plenty of outdoor space to create your dream backyard oasis, add a shed, or enjoy the open area. Parking is a breeze, and the space lease stays refreshingly low, keeping more money in your pocket monthly. Apple Valley Ranchos is open to all age groups and pets. Everyone will love the proximity to High Desert Premier Academy and a nearby park perfect for weekend adventures. Whether you are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer seeking affordability, or someone embracing a simplified lifestyle, this home checks every box. Opportunities like this move fast in today's market. Schedule your tour today before someone else claims your new home! Seller is Motivated.

16. 2026-04-24
    price $72,500 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Welcome to your next chapter in Apple Valley living! This freshly listed two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home delivers 800 square feet of smart, stylish living. The home is in excellent condition and sits on a generous lot with plenty of outdoor space to create your dream backyard oasis, add a shed, or enjoy the open area. Parking is a breeze, and the space lease stays refreshingly low, keeping more money in your pocket monthly. Apple Valley Ranchos is open to all age groups and pets. Everyone will love the proximity to High Desert Premier Academy and a nearby park perfect for weekend adventures. Whether you are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer seeking affordability, or someone embracing a simplified lifestyle, this home checks every box. Opportunities like this move fast in today's market. Schedule your tour today before someone else claims your new home! Seller is Motivated.

17. 2026-03-29
    listed $75,000 Active 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Welcome to your next chapter in Apple Valley living! This freshly listed two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home delivers 800 square feet of smart, stylish living. The home is in excellent condition and sits on a generous lot with plenty of outdoor space to create your dream backyard oasis, add a shed, or enjoy the open area. Parking is a breeze, and the space lease stays refreshingly low, keeping more money in your pocket monthly. Apple Valley Ranchos is open to all age groups and pets. Everyone will love the proximity to High Desert Premier Academy and a nearby park perfect for weekend adventures. Whether you are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer seeking affordability, or someone embracing a simplified lifestyle, this home checks every box. Opportunities like this move fast in today's market. Schedule your tour today before someone else claims your new home! Seller is Motivated.

18. 2026-03-28
    historical $75,000 898-char remark

    Show marketing remark (898 chars)

    Welcome to your next chapter in Apple Valley living! This freshly listed two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home delivers 800 square feet of smart, stylish living. The home is in excellent condition and sits on a generous lot with plenty of outdoor space to create your dream backyard oasis, add a shed, or enjoy the open area. Parking is a breeze, and the space lease stays refreshingly low, keeping more money in your pocket monthly. Apple Valley Ranchos is open to all age groups and pets. Everyone will love the proximity to High Desert Premier Academy and a nearby park perfect for weekend adventures. Whether you are a first-time buyer or repeat buyer seeking affordability, or someone embracing a simplified lifestyle, this home checks every box. Opportunities like this move fast in today's market. Schedule your tour today before someone else claims your new home! Seller is Motivated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $9,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,286
• After-tax cash flow: $7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-bedroom, one-bathroom manufactured home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed. It offers a well-maintained interior and exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Rental Deep clean bathrooms — Clean bathrooms attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Rental Deep clean bathrooms — Clean bathrooms attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $69,500 CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $72,500 CRMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Coming Soon $75,000 CRMLS