12538 S Honore St · Calumet Park, IL
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 6 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +4.5/5.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.6/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$115,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Investors & rehabbers welcome! Sellers are looking for a quick, smooth closing. Preferably cash buyer. Buyer will have to comply with the Calumet Park inspection. Seller will NOT provide a survey or termite. Property does need rehab but is in livable condition. The upper level bedrooms can be accessed from the rear door off the porch. Property my qualify for a rehab loan.
Key facts
- 2,976 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1898
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
- Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 6.7% in Calumet Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#308 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
- Chsd 218 (suburban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #454 of 620 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,061/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.79% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.13%
- Cash-on-cash
- 24.41%
- DSCR
- 2.09
- GRM
- 4.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $225,078
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12211 Irving Ave | 0.62mi | 3/1.5 | 1,397 (-0%) | 1mo | $269,900 | $193 | 68 |
| 12411 S Lincoln St | 0.17mi | 4/1.5 (+1) | 1,295 (-7%) | 6mo | $232,000 | $179 | 68 |
| 12815 Lincoln St | 0.34mi | 3/1.0 | 1,271 (-9%) | 1mo | $150,000 | $118 | 64 |
| 2212 123rd Pl | 0.51mi | 3/1.0 | 1,350 (-3%) | 5mo | $205,000 | $152 | 62 |
| 12726 S Justine St | 0.45mi | 3/1.5 | 1,224 (-12%) | 2mo | $165,000 | $135 | 54 |
| 2239 123rd St | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,255 (-10%) | 2mo | $290,000 | $231 | 54 |
| 12638 Irving Ave | 0.50mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,519 (+9%) | 4mo | $244,330 | $161 | 54 |
| 2346 Vernon St | 0.64mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,500 (+7%) | 4mo | $179,000 | $119 | 50 |
| 12806 S Laflin St | 0.55mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (-14%) | 1mo | $279,000 | $233 | 45 |
| 12816 S Laflin St | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 | 1,200 (-14%) | 2mo | $135,000 | $113 | 45 |
| 12509 S Throop St | 0.72mi | 3/1.0 | 1,216 (-13%) | 2mo | $141,270 | $116 | 39 |
| 2423 Collins St | 0.74mi | 3/1.0 | 1,602 (+15%) | 9mo | $280,000 | $175 | 30 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 7.82% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 23.8%
- Equity multiple
- 2.05×
- Total profit
- $33,708
- Equity at exit
- $17,147
- IRR
- 34.9%
- Equity multiple
- 5.07×
- Total profit
- $131,166
- Equity at exit
- $9,943
Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60827
- Home prices YoY
- -31.8%
- Rents YoY
- 7.8%
- Active inventory
- 76
- Price-to-rent
- 4.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,061 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$603
- Tax from tax record
- −$322 /mo · $3,864/yr
- Insurance
- −$48
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$433
- Net cashflow
- $655
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,750
- Closing costs
- $3,450
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1923 Vermont St Blue Island, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1087 | $1,550 | $1.43 | 24d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 12111 S Justine St Chicago, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1800 | $2,400 | $1.33 | 15d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 12105 S Justine St Chicago, IL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1800 | $2,700 | $1.50 | 2d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 2336 122nd St Unit 2 Blue Island, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1340 | $1,900 | $1.42 | 20d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 12710 Elm St Unit 2B Blue Island, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,850 | $2.06 | 1d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 12827 S Morgan St Unit 1546010P Chicago, IL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1022 | $4,677 | $4.58 | 12d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 2640 Vermont St Unit 1 Blue Island, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1500 | $2,200 | $1.47 | 1d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 2119 135th Pl Unit 4 Blue Island, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,250 | $1.39 | 8d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 2119 135th Pl Blue Island, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,250 | $1.39 | 4d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 13308 Old Western Ave Unit 2 Blue Island, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1350 | $2,200 | $1.63 | 12d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 13308 Old Western Ave Unit 2 Blue Island, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1350 | $2,200 | $1.63 | 22d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 12415 Meadow Ln #5 Blue Island, IL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1800 | $2,200 | $1.22 | 1d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 11549 S Church St Chicago, IL | 4.0 | 4.5 | 1800 | $3,200 | $1.78 | 1d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 843 W 123rd St Unit V5 Calumet Park, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,500 | $1.67 | 13d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 11547 S Ashland Ave Chicago, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $2,700 | $2.70 | 3d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 11706 S Artesian Ave Chicago, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1299 | $3,400 | $2.62 | 1d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 13443 Greenwood Ave Unit 2E Blue Island, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,550 | $1.29 | 1d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 12106 S Emerald Ave Chicago, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $2,550 | $1.96 | 1d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Listing history 38 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
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2026-06-02days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-01days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
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2026-05-20$115,000 Active
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2026-02-06historical
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2026-01-21price
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2026-01-12price
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2026-01-02Active
-
2023-01-21historical
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2022-12-09price
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2022-11-09price
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2022-11-02price
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2022-10-24price
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2022-10-13price
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2022-09-26price
-
2022-09-09Active
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2022-08-29historical
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2022-08-01price
-
2022-08-01Active
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2022-06-07historical
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2022-05-13Active
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2022-02-22historical
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2020-11-04historical
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2020-08-13New
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2007-07-25historical
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2007-05-03
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2006-11-27soldstatus $120,000
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1998-08-28soldstatus $76,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,864 · $322/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,864 · $322/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,730
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,442
- − Property taxes
- −$3,864
- − Insurance
- −$575
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,978
- − Management
- −$1,978
- − Depreciation
- −$3,345
- Taxable income
- $6,547
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,571
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,290/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Chsd 218
- NCES district ID
- 1706540
- Math proficiency
- 14% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 20% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $57,166
- Composite
- 16.09/100
- National rank
- #9235
- State rank
- #454 of 620 in IL
Livability — Calumet Park
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #308
- US rank
- #6048
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Calumet Park, IL
- County
- Cook County · 4,486,803 people
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,713
- Household income
- $37,217
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1868.0
Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,347,519 people
- By 2030
- 5,357,703 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 5,324,924 · -0.4%
- By 2050
- 5,230,762 · -2.2%
- By 2075
- 4,785,735 · -10.5%
- By 2100
- 4,188,836 · -21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 2%
- Common ancestry
- Iranian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Cook
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -76.39%
- Current HPI
- 163.7725
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 7.82%
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
||
| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
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Price history
+51.3% since first listed25 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-20 Listed $115,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-21 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-12 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-01-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-12-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-11-09 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-11-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-10-24 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-10-13 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-09-26 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-09-09 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-08-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-08-01 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-08-01 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-06-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-05-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-02-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-11-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2020-08-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-07-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-05-03 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
- 1998-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+4.1%/yrLatest (2023): $3,864 · +74.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…