16 Palmer Ct · Maybrook, NY 12543

$209,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · Townhouse public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1964 2,576 sqft lot Est $282k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home in the heart of Maybrook, NY, presents an exciting opportunity for buyers with a vision! Located in a peaceful, residential neighborhood, this property offers a spacious layout and a solid foundation—ready for the right buyer to restore and make it their own. Fantastic opportunity for investors, contractors, or anyone looking to put their personal touch on a home in a great location.

Key facts

• 2,576 sq ft lot
• Built 1964
• Listed 157 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.2% in Maybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $210k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.40%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,480
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Watts Ln	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+0%)	13mo	$312,000	$236	76
127 Blake Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (0%)	15mo	$260,000	$197	74
207 Everett Pl	0.02mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+4%)	15mo	$312,500	$226	74
536 Saracino Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+0%)	21mo	$295,000	$223	70
410 Rakov Rd	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+0%)	23mo	$259,900	$196	67
408 Rakov Rd	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,324 (+0%)	23mo	$277,000	$209	66
219 Blake Rd	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,220 (-8%)	10mo	$265,000	$217	63
210 Country Club Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,456 (+10%)	20mo	$270,000	$185	61
543 Saracino Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,220 (-8%)	21mo	$260,000	$213	57
411 Watts Ln	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+6%)	24mo	$299,000	$214	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,577
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $34,289
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12543

• Home prices YoY: -6.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,858/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $209,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Everett Pl Maybrook, NY	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,600	$2.03	43d	1	0.03mi
524 Saracino Dr Maybrook, NY	3.0	1.5	1324	$2,600	$1.96	23d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-21
   price $209,999
3. 2024-12-17
   listed $219,999 Active
4. 2000-10-11
   soldstatus $68,000
5. 1986-10-10
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,858 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,858 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,858
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $2,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$583
• After-tax cash flow: $4,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Maybrook

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maybrook, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,147

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.16%
• Current HPI: 302.6098
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+162.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $209,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-17 Listed $219,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,858 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.