15109 Rose Valley Dr · Mineral, VA 23117

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1989 0.98 ac lot $308/sqft · at area comps Est $354k · at est. $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Rose Valley Drive! Where comfort, space, and updates come together! This beautifully maintained home features a spacious, open feel with vaulted ceilings in the family room, kitchen, and dining area, creating a bright and airy living space. The family room offers a cozy fireplace with a wood stove, perfect for relaxing evenings. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, complete with granite countertops, hardwood floors, an eat-at bar, and newer appliances. The washer and dryer convey, making this home truly move-in ready. The adjacent dining room also features hardwood flooring, ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Designed with privacy in mind, the home offers a split-bedroom layout, and all three bedrooms include walk-in closets. The primary suite bathroom has been beautifully remodeled, offering a refreshed and modern retreat. Additional updates include a new toilet in the hall bathroom, six-panel doors, and four ceiling fans throughout the home. Major systems have been updated, including a newer roof and gutters, replacement windows, newer hot water heater, and a brand-new AC unit (2025). The home is equipped with propane gas heat (tank rented) and a water treatment system for added comfort and peace of mind. Step outside and enjoy everything this property has to offer. Situated on a large, nearly one-acre lot, the home features a fully fenced yard with a gated entrance, including 8-foot front and rear gates and two side gates; ideal for privacy, pets, or equipment access. There is ample parking and two storage sheds, one of which includes electricity. Relax on the front porch or entertain on the deck off the kitchen, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. As an added bonus, enjoy private access to Lake Anna within the subdivision, giving you the opportunity to enjoy water activities just minutes from home. This property offers the perfect blend of updates, space, and lifestyle. Don’t miss your chance to call Rose Valley Drive home!

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Eat-at bar
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-AT BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Livingston Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 435 students, 64% FRL); Post Oak Middle (math 48% / reading 63%, grade B-, #186 of 342 statewide, top 55%, 665 students, 64% FRL); Spotsylvania High (math 41% / reading 81%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,388 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $340k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,454
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5605 Wyndemere	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-1%)	8mo	$283,500	$260	72
5814 Annies Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	19mo	$303,000	$307	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-63,720
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-67,040
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23117

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $987/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $316,522

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-37	+0% $-133	+5% $-229	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-228	+0% $-133	+5% $-38	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-46	base $-133	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6009 Noranda Dr Mineral, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,400	$2.10	3d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectricsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $340,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $340,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-03-21
    listed $340,000 Active 1991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1991 chars)

    Welcome to Rose Valley Drive! Where comfort, space, and updates come together! This beautifully maintained home features a spacious, open feel with vaulted ceilings in the family room, kitchen, and dining area, creating a bright and airy living space. The family room offers a cozy fireplace with a wood stove, perfect for relaxing evenings. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, complete with granite countertops, hardwood floors, an eat-at bar, and newer appliances. The washer and dryer convey, making this home truly move-in ready. The adjacent dining room also features hardwood flooring, ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. Designed with privacy in mind, the home offers a split-bedroom layout, and all three bedrooms include walk-in closets. The primary suite bathroom has been beautifully remodeled, offering a refreshed and modern retreat. Additional updates include a new toilet in the hall bathroom, six-panel doors, and four ceiling fans throughout the home. Major systems have been updated, including a newer roof and gutters, replacement windows, newer hot water heater, and a brand-new AC unit (2025). The home is equipped with propane gas heat (tank rented) and a water treatment system for added comfort and peace of mind. Step outside and enjoy everything this property has to offer. Situated on a large, nearly one-acre lot, the home features a fully fenced yard with a gated entrance, including 8-foot front and rear gates and two side gates; ideal for privacy, pets, or equipment access. There is ample parking and two storage sheds, one of which includes electricity. Relax on the front porch or entertain on the deck off the kitchen, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. As an added bonus, enjoy private access to Lake Anna within the subdivision, giving you the opportunity to enjoy water activities just minutes from home. This property offers the perfect blend of updates, space, and lifestyle. Don’t miss your chance to call Rose Valley Drive home!

16. 2008-04-30
    historical
17. 2006-03-01
    listed
18. 2003-10-14
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 2003-10-10
    soldstatus $95,000
20. 2003-08-05
    historical
21. 2003-01-07
    listed $99,000
22. 1995-03-20
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $987 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,801/yr (+$150/mo · 182.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$987
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$7,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,847
• After-tax cash flow: $252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mineral

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,772

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 16% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.27%
• Current HPI: 335.147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+396.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-04-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-03-01 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-10 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MRIS
• 2003-08-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-01-07 Listed $99,000 MRIS
• 1995-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $987 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.