Is 1016 Daybreak Dr in Brookshire, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-427/mo modeled cash flow at a $275,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1016 Daybreak Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,421/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.35

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
DSCR +1.5/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$275,990

1016 Daybreak Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Step into your next home and be greeted by a flex room and the stairs leading to the second floor. As you continue through the main level, you'll find the kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a back patio located just off the dining space. On the opposite side of the family room, there's a powder bath, coat closet, mudroom, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a loft connects three additional bedrooms-one featuring a walk-in closet-and a shared full bath. A laundry room is conveniently located across from the third bedroom. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

Key facts

Large island
Soft close cabinets
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (5.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (12.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $242k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $242,111 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.75% ✗
Cap rate: 4.71%
Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
DSCR: 0.75
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $324,015
List price: $275,990
Delta: -14.82%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,406 (0%)	3mo	$363,540	$151	96
1136 Sunlit Cir	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,338 (-3%)	3mo	$354,490	$152	88
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+1%)	2mo	$469,997	$194	83
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	2mo	$275,990	$122	72
2000 Solstice Landing Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	1mo	$255,991	$113	69
1044 Star Skye Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,717 (+13%)	2mo	$381,290	$140	68
3036 Duskshine Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+6%)	3mo	$305,490	$120	66
2085 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,172 (-10%)	4mo	$423,166	$195	66
1008 Sunlit Cir	0.06mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,722 (+13%)	4mo	$375,040	$138	65
2025 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,674 (+11%)	3mo	$476,389	$178	62
2020 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,744 (+14%)	2mo	$374,990	$137	60
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-10%)	3mo	$324,990	$150	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-86,667
Equity at exit: $48,312

10-year hold

IRR: -50.0%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-137,470
Equity at exit: $28,015

Cash invested: $90,724 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 149 active · 64 under contract
Months of supply: 15.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $347,990 ($152/sqft)
Median days on market: 84 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -11.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1404
Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,421 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,860/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
Net cashflow: $-427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $262,297

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-203	-5% $-315	+0% $-427	+5% $-538	+10% $-650
Rent	-10% $-618	-5% $-522	+0% $-427	+5% $-331	+10% $-235
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-344	base $-427	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $81,004
Closing costs: $9,720
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Association: Grand ManorsAssociation fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionFull ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilder: Starlight HomesFacing/entry level information not provided
Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: DeckPatioFully fenced backyardBack yard fencingSubdivision lotConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen islandGranite countersDishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Upper level) — 19x16Bedroom (Upper level) — 14x15Bedroom (Upper level) — 12x11Bedroom (Upper level) — 18x15Family room (First level) — 20x16Total rooms: 5
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: All bedrooms located upstairsEn suite bathroomGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen open to family roomPantryPrimary bedroom on upper levelWalk-in closet(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTub/shower
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $275,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $275,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $275,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $275,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $275,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $275,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $275,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $275,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $275,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-14

pricedays on market $275,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $264,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $264,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $264,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $269,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $269,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-02

days on marketlisting id $269,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $269,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $269,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $269,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $269,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $269,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $269,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $269,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $269,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $269,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $269,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $269,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $269,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $269,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $269,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $269,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $269,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $269,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $269,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $269,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $269,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $269,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $269,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $269,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $269,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $269,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $269,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $269,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $269,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $269,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $269,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $269,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $269,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $269,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $269,990 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,053
− Mortgage interest: −$18,150
− Property taxes: −$4,860
− Insurance: −$1,620
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
− Management: −$2,324
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$9,426
Taxable loss: −$10,851

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,604
After-tax cash flow: $-2,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new two-story home offers a spacious and functional design with an open floor plan, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The exterior is newly landscaped and painted, making it move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

Score: 62/100
State rank: #960
US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-09-02 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
2026-09-02 Listed $355,040 HARMLS
2026-07-14 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-07-09 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
2026-07-07 Relisted — Zillow
2026-07-06 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
2026-06-04 Delisted — Zillow
2026-06-01 Price Changed $355,040 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listed $259,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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