1016 Daybreak Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

$269,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW TWO STORY HOME WITH OPEN AND FUNCTIONAL DESIGN Introducing the Solstice floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,015.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,119 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.54%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,015
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -16.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,406 (0%)	1mo	$363,540	$151	97
1136 Sunlit Cir	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,338 (-3%)	2mo	$354,490	$152	90
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+1%)	1mo	$469,997	$194	84
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	0mo	$275,990	$122	74
1044 Star Skye Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,717 (+13%)	0mo	$381,290	$140	69
3036 Duskshine Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+6%)	2mo	$305,490	$120	68
2085 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,172 (-10%)	2mo	$423,166	$195	67
1008 Sunlit Cir	0.06mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,722 (+13%)	2mo	$375,040	$138	67
2025 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,674 (+11%)	2mo	$476,389	$178	64
2020 Blue Mar Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,744 (+14%)	0mo	$374,990	$137	62
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-10%)	2mo	$324,990	$150	59
1032 Selene Sky Dr	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,733 (+14%)	2mo	$377,990	$138	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-86,189
• Equity at exit: $48,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-136,513
• Equity at exit: $28,015

Cash invested: $90,724 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 137 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $351,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 156 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1235
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,860/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $263,451

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-307	+0% $-419	+5% $-531	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-515	+0% $-419	+5% $-323	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-336	base $-419	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,004
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Starlight Homes
• HOA & community: Association: Grand ManorsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family designSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioFully fenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom — Second floor (19 x 16)Bedroom — Second floor (14 x 15)Bedroom — Second floor (12 x 11)Bedroom — Second floor (18 x 15)Family room — First floor (20 x 16)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub with showerProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $269,990 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $269,990 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $269,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $269,990 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $269,990 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $269,990 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $269,990 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    price $269,990 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 42 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    pricestatusdays on market $259,990 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $355,040 Pending 39 DOM
28. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $355,040 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,990 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-04-24
    listed $259,990 Active 886-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,150
• − Property taxes: −$4,860
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,426
• Taxable loss: −$10,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new two-story home offers a spacious and functional design with an open floor plan, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The exterior is newly landscaped and painted, making it move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Starlight Homes
• HOA & community: Association: Grand ManorsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family designSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: DeckPatioFully fenced backyardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom — Second floor (19 x 16)Bedroom — Second floor (14 x 15)Bedroom — Second floor (12 x 11)Bedroom — Second floor (18 x 15)Family room — First floor (20 x 16)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub with showerProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

+36.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $355,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $259,990 HARMLS