25 Cedar St Unit C · Manchester, NJ 08757

$69,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Good condition $76/sqft · 29% below area Est $98k · 29% under $486/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 920 sq. ft. quad model featuring freshly painted walls, spotless interior, and newly refinished hardwood floors throughout. This bright and inviting home also offers newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Enjoy additional living space in the heated sun porch, perfect for relaxing year-round. A charming, low-maintenance home ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Newer windows
• Heated sun porch
• Parking

Tags

• HEATED SUN PORCH
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgeway Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #661 of 1,303 statewide, top 54%, 435 students, 49% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 23% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 668 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.77%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,270
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -29.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Pine St Unit B	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$130	89
27 B Cedar St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	5mo	$135,000	$150	84
9 Birch Dr Unit B	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	6mo	$70,000	$76	83
22 A Holly St Unit A	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	16mo	$80,500	$88	80
3 A Birch St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	11mo	$77,000	$86	77
5 Cypress St Unit C	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	3mo	$70,000	$78	76
9 Birch St Unit D	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	14mo	$90,000	$100	73
2 Cypress St Unit C	0.31mi	1/1.0	900 (-2%)	13mo	$118,000	$131	71
6A Willow St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	19mo	$85,000	$92	70
5a Cedar St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	14mo	$100,000	$111	70
1 Willow St Unit A	0.13mi	1/1.0	984 (+7%)	22mo	$85,000	$86	64
1641 Madison Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	821 (-11%)	8mo	$360,000	$438	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $37,371
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $96,086
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $115,000 ($128/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -16.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $806	-5% $782	+0% $758	+5% $734	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $586	-5% $672	+0% $758	+5% $845	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $793	-0.5pp $776	base $758	+0.5pp $740	+1.0pp $722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Fox Glove Run Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	38d	1	1.19mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	93d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $69,500 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $69,500 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $69,500 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $69,500 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $69,500 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $69,500 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $69,500 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $69,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $69,500 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $69,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $69,500 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $69,500 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $69,500 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $69,500 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $69,500 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $69,500 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $69,500 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 116 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,500 Active 115 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,500 Active 114 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $69,500 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $69,500 Active 108 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $69,500 Active 107 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $69,500 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $69,500 Active 105 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $69,500 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,500 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $69,500 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 97 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $69,500 Active 96 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $69,500 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $69,500 Active 94 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 92 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 88 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,500 Active 83 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 82 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 81 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $8,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,600–$13,800 screening

This home is in good condition with fresh paint and hardwood floors. It's ready for its next owner and offers a good return on investment.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring tile

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles
• Major Hvac (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — hvac unit appears to be old and in poor condition with visible rust and corrosion
• Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — windows appear to be old and in poor condition with visible damage and missing panes
• Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — electrical panel appears to be old and in poor condition with visible damage and missing components
• Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — plumbing appears to be old and in poor condition with visible leaks and damage
• Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — exterior appears to be old and in poor condition with visible damage and missing components

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Hardwood floors are in good condition but could be refreshed ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgeway Elementary School F NJ #661/1,303 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+87.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $69,500 MOMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $75,000 MOMLS
• 2019-11-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2019-08-19 Listed $37,000 MOMLS