25 Cedar St Unit C · Pine Lake Park, NJ 08757

$69,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

$76/sqft · 25% below area Est $93k · 25% under $486/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 920 sq. ft. quad model featuring freshly painted walls, spotless interior, and newly refinished hardwood floors throughout. This bright and inviting home also offers newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Enjoy additional living space in the heated sun porch, perfect for relaxing year-round. A charming, low-maintenance home ready for its next owner.

Key facts

• Newer windows
• Heated sun porch
• Parking

Tags

• HEATED SUN PORCH
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Lake Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,245 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.53%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,192
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -25.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 B Cedar St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	4mo	$135,000	$150	85
9 Birch Dr Unit B	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	5mo	$70,000	$76	84
22 A Holly St Unit A	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	14mo	$80,500	$88	81
3 A Birch St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	9mo	$77,000	$86	79
5 Cypress St Unit C	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	2mo	$70,000	$78	77
9 Birch St Unit D	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	13mo	$90,000	$100	74
2 Cypress St Unit C	0.31mi	1/1.0	900 (-2%)	11mo	$118,000	$131	72
6A Willow St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	920 (0%)	18mo	$85,000	$92	72
5a Cedar St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	12mo	$100,000	$111	71
1 Willow St Unit A	0.13mi	1/1.0	984 (+7%)	20mo	$85,000	$86	66
6 Magnolia St Unit C	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (-2%)	21mo	$90,000	$100	62
1641 Madison Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	821 (-11%)	6mo	$360,000	$438	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $35,057
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $91,089
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$486
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $486 · $5,832/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,500 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,500 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $69,500 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 920 sq. ft. quad model featuring freshly painted walls, spotless interior, and newly refinished hardwood floors throughout. This bright and inviting home also offers newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Enjoy additional living space in the heated sun porch, perfect for relaxing year-round. A charming, low-maintenance home ready for its next owner.

15. 2026-03-13
    listed $75,000 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 920 sq. ft. quad model featuring freshly painted walls, spotless interior, and newly refinished hardwood floors throughout. This bright and inviting home also offers newer windows that bring in plenty of natural light. Enjoy additional living space in the heated sun porch, perfect for relaxing year-round. A charming, low-maintenance home ready for its next owner.

16. 2019-11-16
    historical
17. 2019-08-19
    listed $37,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$5,832
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $8,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,017
• After-tax cash flow: $6,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Lake Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+87.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $69,500 MOMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $75,000 MOMLS
• 2019-11-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2019-08-19 Listed $37,000 MOMLS