134 Scout Rd · Jones Creek, TX 77541

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1954 0.79 ac lot $58/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in an established Freeport neighborhood! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,198 sq. ft. of living space and sits on a spacious, cleared .8-acre lot, providing ample room for expansion, redevelopment, or additional improvements. Built in 1954, the home is in need of significant repairs and updating, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or those looking to create value. The large lot is a rare find and offers endless potential for outdoor living, storage, or future development. Conveniently located near local industry, schools, and coastal amenities. Don’t miss your chance to claim this Texas treasure!

Key facts

• Spacious cleared lot
• 0.79 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• SPACIOUS CLEARED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 1.8% in Jones Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: S F Austin El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 265 students, 74% FRL); Freeport Int (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 425 students, 86% FRL); Brazosport H S (math 40% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 948 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.62%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,273
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -57.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7342 Live Oak Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+5%)	2mo	$150,000	$119	71
7219 Live Oak Dr	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (-11%)	14mo	$78,500	$74	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $30,402
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $80,196
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $676	+0% $652	+5% $628	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $592	+0% $652	+5% $712	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $687	-0.5pp $669	base $652	+0.5pp $634	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $74,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,999 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,999 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $89,999 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Investor special in an established Freeport neighborhood! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,198 sq. ft. of living space and sits on a spacious, cleared .8-acre lot, providing ample room for expansion, redevelopment, or additional improvements. Built in 1954, the home is in need of significant repairs and updating, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or those looking to create value. The large lot is a rare find and offers endless potential for outdoor living, storage, or future development. Conveniently located near local industry, schools, and coastal amenities. Don’t miss your chance to claim this Texas treasure!

16. 2026-04-21
    price $99,999 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Investor special in an established Freeport neighborhood! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,198 sq. ft. of living space and sits on a spacious, cleared .8-acre lot, providing ample room for expansion, redevelopment, or additional improvements. Built in 1954, the home is in need of significant repairs and updating, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or those looking to create value. The large lot is a rare find and offers endless potential for outdoor living, storage, or future development. Conveniently located near local industry, schools, and coastal amenities. Don’t miss your chance to claim this Texas treasure!

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $110,000 Active 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Investor special in an established Freeport neighborhood! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,198 sq. ft. of living space and sits on a spacious, cleared .8-acre lot, providing ample room for expansion, redevelopment, or additional improvements. Built in 1954, the home is in need of significant repairs and updating, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or those looking to create value. The large lot is a rare find and offers endless potential for outdoor living, storage, or future development. Conveniently located near local industry, schools, and coastal amenities. Don’t miss your chance to claim this Texas treasure!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥116°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $7,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $6,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jones Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #12077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jones Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $89,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $110,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,474 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.