3040 Newton Dr · Pensacola, FL 32503

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1972 8,324 sqft lot Est $340k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADDENDUM MUST BE SIGNED TO PRESENT OFFERS.FORECLOSED PROPERTY LOTS OF ROOM. LOTS OF POTENTIAL.CONVENIENT MALLORY HEIGHTS SUBDIVISION.

Key facts

• 8,324 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved public maintained road access
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers for electric; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story frame house; One level; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead exempt; Green features include insulation, insulated floors and walls, and ridge vent
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Sprinkler system; Satellite dish; Back yard fencing with privacy panels; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with pantry; Stainless steel appliances; Butcher block countertops; White shaker cabinets; Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13.4' x 15.6'); Bedroom 1 on the first floor (approx. 9.3' x 13.1'); Bedroom 2 on the first floor (approx. 10.1' x 9.6'); Bedroom 3 on the first floor (approx. 9.3' x 9.1')
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Updated vanities, toilets and fixtures (updated within 1–5 years)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Storage; Baseboards; Ceiling fan(s); High speed internet; Bonus room; Insulated doors; Storm door(s); Blinds; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $300k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,572 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,605
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3121 Whistler Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+4%)	1mo	$349,000	$215	84
3600 Summit Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-2%)	4mo	$335,000	$219	66
3621 Bonner Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-2%)	3mo	$399,900	$260	60
3755 Firestone Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+4%)	5mo	$320,000	$197	59
761 Connell Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,585 (+1%)	1mo	$385,000	$243	58
3420 Summit Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (+8%)	11mo	$318,000	$189	57
3540 Dunfries Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+9%)	3mo	$494,500	$291	54
4020 Coppertree Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+4%)	5mo	$340,000	$208	49
3251 Wythe Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-12%)	6mo	$235,000	$171	49
3251 Braxton Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,359 (-13%)	3mo	$295,000	$217	48
3545 Blueridge Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+11%)	6mo	$347,000	$200	41
3640 Maule Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+14%)	8mo	$480,000	$269	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,998
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,746
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32503

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3545 Hopestill Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,400	$1.21	23d	1	0.51mi
3547 Firestone Blvd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,695	$1.35	23d	1	0.59mi
3791 Maule Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$3,250	$1.62	23d	1	0.65mi
3014 Magnolia Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,750	$1.67	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-03
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,502/yr (+$125/mo · 151.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$1,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $4,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pensacola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #924

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 237,636
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,559
• Household income: $71,411
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 948.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.02%
• Current HPI: 294.4873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+347.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $300,000 PARMLS
• 2000-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-09 Sold (MLS) $64,000 PARMLS
• 2000-07-10 Listed $69,900 PARMLS
• 1996-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $988 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.