4459 Nc 8650 · Jasper, AR 72641

$239,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2008 Poor condition 10 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

If you’re looking for a quiet private retreat deep in Newton County, over 4 miles down a dirt road, then look no further! The 1100 Sqft cabin features 1 big bedroom with covered deck access, and a walk in closet. 1 full bathroom, and an open living room, dining, and kitchen in the main area. There is an unfinished room that is attached with exterior entrance only, that is plumbed for gas heat. The 10.38 acres is the perfect mix of openness, and woods. With a garden area already set up, a concrete slab that is ready for you to build a shop or garage on, a strong built chicken coop, and an abundant amount of wildlife with a mix of Deer, Turkey & bear. The property also has a wet w

Key facts

• Garden area
• Unfinished room
• Plumbed for gas heat

Tags

• COVERED DECK ACCESS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• UNFINISHED ROOM
• PLUMBED FOR GAS HEAT
• GARDEN AREA
• STRONG BUILT CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 10-acre lot (includes about 2 acres pasture and about 8 acres wooded); Road frontage on a county road with gravel surface
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane; Septic available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Wood-sided exterior
• Construction: Metal roof; Block foundation; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Gravel driveway; Creek on the property; Cleared, sloped and wooded areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (13.4 x 11)
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level (13.6 x 16.3)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level (7.9 x 7.6)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in closet(s); Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #115 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jasper Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 271 students, 65% FRL); Jasper High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 208 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,709 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-26,429
• Equity at exit: $36,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,462
• Equity at exit: $22,266

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72641

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $261	+0% $179	+5% $96	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $87	+0% $179	+5% $270	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $240	base $179	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $239,000 Active 1011-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $2,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed in the exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and uneven, likely needs replacement.
• Major Foundation/structure — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.
• Major Windows — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.
• Major Kitchen and bathroom — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity.
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Interior wall and paint refresh — Enhances the home's aesthetic and value.
• Both Windows replacement — Improves energy efficiency and security.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Enhances functionality and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and uneven, likely needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen and bathroom · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No visible photos, but given the overall condition, it's likely in poor shape.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity. ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Interior wall and paint refresh — Enhances the home's aesthetic and value. ↑
• Both Windows replacement — Improves energy efficiency and security. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Enhances functionality and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper School District
• NCES district ID: 0508240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,615
• Composite: 29.59/100
• National rank: #6480
• State rank: #115 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,063

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,052 people
• By 2030: 6,509 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 5,424 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 4,502 · -36.2%
• By 2075: 3,018 · -57.2%
• By 2100: 1,985 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.1% · R 81.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 195.4325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $239,000 NWARMLS