26914 Rosebay Woods Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$283,940

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 $144/sqft · 6% below area Est $302k · 6% under $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-387/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,903 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,990
• List price: $283,940
• Delta: -5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,751
• Equity at exit: $42,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-80,865
• Equity at exit: $24,550

Cash invested: $79,503 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,259/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,716

Max offer price $279,270

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $66	+0% $-32	+5% $-130	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-138	+0% $-32	+5% $73	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $40	base $-32	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,985
• Closing costs: $8,518
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.20mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.28mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.42mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.64mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.67mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.75mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	0.81mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.88mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.95mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.07mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	1.22mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.24mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.29mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.30mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	1.31mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	1.32mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	1.34mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.35mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.38mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	1.41mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	1.45mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $283,940 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,940 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,940 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,940 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,940 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,940 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,940 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,940 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,940 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,940 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,940 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,940 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,940 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,940 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $283,940 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-13
    price $288,590 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $297,990 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $307,740 Active 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,905
• − Property taxes: −$4,259
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,568
• − Management: −$2,568
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$8,260
• Taxable loss: −$5,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $283,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $288,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $297,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $307,740 HARMLS