3627 Kempsford Field Pl · Waldorf, MD 20602

$265,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1984 1,400 sqft lot Est $350k · 24% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own one of the few three-level townhomes in this beautiful Waldorf community! This spacious home offers approximately 1,720 square feet of comfortable living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The main level boasts a bright and open layout with a large living room highlighted by a picture window, and a dining area that flows seamlessly onto the deck—perfect for relaxing outdoors. The updated kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet and counter space. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. The walk-out lower level expands your living space with a generous rec room,

Key facts

• Walk-out lower level
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• THREE-LEVEL TOWNHOMES
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.8% in Waldorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $265k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,452 (1.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,680
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411-A White Fir Ct	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,346 (-4%)	9mo	$339,900	$253	61
3607 Kempsford Fld	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-15%)	16mo	$295,000	$246	59
3415-B White Fir Ct	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,346 (-4%)	11mo	$339,900	$253	57
3975 Wintergreen Pl	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,267 (-10%)	3mo	$280,000	$221	56
800-B Larkspur Ct Unit 7B	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-15%)	2mo	$295,000	$246	51
731 Hatfield Ct	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-10%)	22mo	$314,990	$248	45
3844 Gateview Pl	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+9%)	8mo	$329,900	$214	41
704-B Barrington Dr Unit 3B	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-15%)	20mo	$240,000	$200	40
3931 Wintergreen Pl	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-12%)	20mo	$325,000	$262	39
741 Hatfield Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-15%)	17mo	$322,600	$269	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,876
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,900
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20602

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,291/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3053 Heathcote Rd Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1034	$2,300	$2.22	44d	1	0.18mi
3125 Heathcote Rd Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,995	$1.93	44d	1	0.28mi
2094 Chapelside Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,900	$2.03	44d	1	0.31mi
3379 Justice Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1085	$1,975	$1.82	5d	1	0.35mi
3975 Wintergreen Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	24d	1	0.52mi
3870 Gateview Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,495	$1.49	20d	1	0.62mi
3454 Tamarack Ct Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	1368	$2,900	$2.12	44d	1	0.73mi
2619 Rooks Head Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,500	$2.10	44d	1	0.78mi
2708 Grindall Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,650	$1.76	13d	1	0.78mi
12344 Sweetbriar Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	3.0	1776	$2,700	$1.52	44d	1	0.83mi
2324 Kent Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,900	$1.80	4d	1	0.84mi
3381 Ryon Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$2,200	$1.79	12d	1	0.88mi
30 Keepsake Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,000	$1.49	24d	1	0.90mi
1718 Brightwell Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,195	$2.08	22d	1	0.90mi
12111 Fielding Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1835	$3,270	$1.78	5d	7	0.93mi
1015 Copperfield Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,600	$1.88	22d	1	0.94mi
1537 Bryan Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,600	$1.58	44d	1	0.95mi
4503 Ruston Pl Unit 43M Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1076	$2,300	$2.14	12d	1	0.98mi
3281 Ryon Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$2,299	$1.87	44d	1	1.01mi
4703 Rookewood Pl Unit 28K Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1350	$2,500	$1.85	44d	1	1.05mi
1001 Tyler Ct Waldorf, MD	3.0	1.5	1315	$2,600	$1.98	22d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   historical
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $265,000 Active
4. 1992-04-06
   soldstatus $98,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,291 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,291 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,291
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$1,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $3,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 103,527 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,331
• Household income: $107,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 19% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.39%
• Current HPI: 267.3445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+169.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,291 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.