629 Ohio Ave · Trenton, NJ 08638

$252,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1910 1,259 sqft lot Est $315k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is selling in as is condition. Buyer to get township certificate of occupancy. Photos are coming soon.

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone; Lot dimensions approximately 12.6 x 100 ft; Located in the middle of the block

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water; Cable TV available; Electric service available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Excellent condition; Effective year built 2025
• Construction: Combination construction materials; Pitched shingle roof; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Full basement
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Patio(s); Rear yard; Fully vinyl fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level
• Flooring: Engineered wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Attic; Walk-in shower in bathroom; Breakfast area; Ceiling fans; Combination dining and living area; Dining area; Family room off the kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $252k).
• Recommended offer: $244k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,575/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1185% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $252k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,440 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,288
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Myrtle St	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	12mo	$400,000	$397	66
1142 Indiana Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	8mo	$300,000	$300	58
18 Dexter St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+15%)	1mo	$139,000	$116	53
1314 Indiana Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,160 (+11%)	19mo	$350,000	$302	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-14,211
• Equity at exit: $37,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $24,111
• Equity at exit: $21,788

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,421/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $252,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $477	+0% $406	+5% $335	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $304	+0% $406	+5% $508	+10% $609
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $470	base $406	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.15mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.22mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.24mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	0.46mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	0.60mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.76mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.79mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	0.83mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	0.86mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	0.91mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	1.00mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	1.01mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.03mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.07mi
21 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,000	$1.56	14d	1	1.13mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	1.14mi
25 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,050	$1.60	14d	1	1.14mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	1.29mi
8 Joan Ter Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1397	$3,250	$2.33	21d	1	1.35mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	1.39mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.40mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $252,000 Active
3. 2026-03-10
   historical $252,000
4. 2024-11-20
   soldstatus $157,000 Closed 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   Property is selling in as is condition. Buyer to get township certificate of occupancy. Photos are coming soon.

5. 2024-11-10
   status Pending 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   Property is selling in as is condition. Buyer to get township certificate of occupancy. Photos are coming soon.

6. 2024-10-09
   historical Active Under Contract 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   Property is selling in as is condition. Buyer to get township certificate of occupancy. Photos are coming soon.

7. 2024-09-21
   listed $159,900 Active 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   Property is selling in as is condition. Buyer to get township certificate of occupancy. Photos are coming soon.

8. 1980-12-01
   soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,421 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,348 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,927/yr (+$161/mo · 79.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$2,421
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable income: $826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$198
• After-tax cash flow: $4,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+928.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $252,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $252,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-20 Sold (MLS) $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-21 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,421 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.