7 Santa Maria Ln · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $167k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great value on this two bedroom and two bath home ready for your investment. Vaulted ceilings with large windows provide lots of natural light. Convenient location to all the West Gate shopping and DeSoto area amenities. Roof is scheduled to be replaced. No Sellers Disclosure Available. Lead Base Paint Disclosure in Documents.

Key facts

• Large windows
• West gate shopping
• Natural light

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• WEST GATE SHOPPING
• DESOTO AREA AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $140k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,524 (2.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Valls Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	6mo	$175,000	$168	93
5 Valls Cir	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,040 (0%)	12mo	$173,500	$167	82
14 Tomisa Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	12mo	$135,000	$134	78
4 Tomino Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	4mo	$200,000	$185	78
4 N Pego Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	7mo	$154,000	$143	74
14 Silla Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+8%)	14mo	$182,000	$161	69
61 Tomino Way	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$131	66
9 Sabadell Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+13%)	2mo	$164,000	$140	59
12 Badalona Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+7%)	4mo	$184,000	$165	53
65 Segovia Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,168 (+12%)	12mo	$163,000	$140	53
27 Sonora Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,158 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$194	51
22 Albacete Way	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	7mo	$118,500	$100	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,672
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,344
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $793/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $260	+0% $221	+5% $181	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $167	+0% $221	+5% $274	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $256	base $221	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 La Vista Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1028	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.42mi
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	24d	1	0.49mi
16 Dulzura Ln Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,100	$0.98	15d	1	0.62mi
2 Dulzura Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,200	$1.07	45d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 328-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$102/yr (+$9/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$793
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87
• After-tax cash flow: $2,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+459.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $139,900 FSBO.com
• 2021-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-23 Sold (MLS) $67,000 CARMLS
• 2018-09-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2018-09-25 Listed $69,000 CARMLS
• 1997-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $502,545 Public Records
• 1982-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1981-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $793 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.