17 Celeste Ct · Springfield, IL 62703

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,759 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1963 Est $160k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4 bedroom ranch featuring a desirable split-bedroom floor plan. Enjoy a cozy double sided fireplace that adds warmth and charm to multiple living spaces. The large eat-in kitchen offers a pantry & beautiful quartz countertops-perfect for everyday living & entertaining. Additional flexible space can be used as an office, den or playroom to fit your needs. Step outside to a generously sized fenced yard complete with a patio area and storage shed-ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings. A 2+ car garage provides ample parking and storage with even more features to discover.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-16/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $190k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $163,272 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,069
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Celeste Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,759 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$108	99
3120 S 13th St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-10%)	3mo	$100,000	$63	64
1410 E Cottonwood St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,653 (-6%)	8mo	$155,000	$94	59
3236 St Francis Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,945 (+11%)	20mo	$172,500	$89	56
3714 E Hooker St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+2%)	10mo	$164,900	$92	51
3328 S Fremont St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (-4%)	6mo	$154,000	$91	48
3348 S 3rd St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (+3%)	24mo	$155,400	$86	40
3554 Stanton St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,660 (-6%)	17mo	$155,500	$94	38
2916 S 11th St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,568 (-11%)	20mo	$122,000	$78	35
2837 S 13th St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+14%)	16mo	$46,000	$23	34
3245 S 3rd St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,525 (-13%)	10mo	$157,000	$103	29
3204 S 2nd St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,650 (-6%)	22mo	$115,000	$70	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,235
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,844
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,588/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $189,759

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $190,000 Active
3. 1998-04-15
   soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,450 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$863/yr (+$72/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,588
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+148.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $190,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,588 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.