4634 Mesita St · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$280,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2006 5,227 sqft lot $143/sqft · 6% above area Est $265k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3 BR+2.5 bath 2-story home with loft space and 2 living areas. Large kitchen and Dining Area. Covered back patio and fenced yard. Stainless Appliances, lots of storage and Large master closet. Great Price. .. come and see!

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• Fenced yard
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• LOTS OF STORAGE
• LARGE MASTER CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Parkhill Estates subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Built by Ken Thurston Homes
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Lot approximately 0.12 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double-pane windows; Low-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary (744 students, 100% FRL); Vista Middle (602 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,807 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,249
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: 5.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-62,940
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-74,947
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $228,872

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-210	+0% $-289	+5% $-369	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-362	+0% $-289	+5% $-217	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-218	base $-289	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4604 Pyramid Peak Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,525	$1.04	46d	1	0.21mi
1485 Bison Spring Dr Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,999	$1.15	46d	1	0.33mi
4383 Kingston Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	46d	1	0.61mi
1977 Pine Trail St Apt B Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,625	$1.29	46d	1	0.65mi
4025 Boardwalk Rd Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.5	2530	$2,495	$0.99	23d	1	0.68mi
4023 Apache Pine Pl Unit D Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1629	$1,850	$1.14	46d	1	0.72mi
3350 Longview Ln Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	2135	$1,895	$0.89	46d	1	0.94mi
1932 Starburst Ridge Ct Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	23d	1	0.99mi
3260 Venus St Las Cruces, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,600	$1.68	15d	6	1.19mi
3670 Gem St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	46d	1	1.21mi
3451 Valverde Loop Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,500	$1.17	46d	2	1.32mi
3704 Chromite Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	46d	1	1.40mi
5015 Emerald St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,450	$1.02	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $280,000 Active 231-char remark
17. 2006-09-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,240 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $280,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2006-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.