3203 SE Vineyard Rd #44 · Oak Grove, OR 97267

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other · 55 Days on market

Built 1966 $116/sqft · 122% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable Retro Gem in the Heart of Milwaukie – Easy Living Awaits! Step into charm and comfort with this delightful home full of personality and warmth! Featuring honey-colored walls and a cozy retro vibe, this home offers affordable, easy-maintenance living in a peaceful senior community. The inviting layout boasts a great flow, with both a formal dining room and a spacious dining area—perfect for hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet meals at home. A beautifully lit built-in hutch adds character and function, creating a standout focal point. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with charming built-ins and an abundance of closet space. The bathroom has been thoughtfully updated with a wonderful tiled walk-in shower, newer vanity, and toilet. A versatile second bedroom also features built-ins—ideal for guests, a den, or a creative craft space. The kitchen is ready for your culinary adventures, offering ample counter space along with a new refrigerator and dishwasher. Recent Updates Include: 5-year-old roof, New decks, Furnace & heat pump (2023), Stackable washer & dryer, Water heater, Updated landscaping & new French drain, Insulated and wired Tuff Shed for extra storage or workspace. Outside, the backyard is a blank canvas—perfect for garden boxes and growing your own fresh vegetables. Located in the heart of Milwaukie, you’ll love being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Plus, the nearby Trolley Trail is just steps from your door—perfect for peaceful afternoon strolls. Enjoy the tranquility of a welcoming senior community known for its quiet atmosphere and friendly neighbors. Don’t miss this charming and affordable opportunity.

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Tuff shed
• New refrigerator

Tags

• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW DECKS
• TUFF SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#37 in OR, #832 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.96%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $31,500
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 121.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $31,090
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $73,109
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97267

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 SE Naef Rd Apt B22 Milwaukie, OR	1.0	1.0	717	$1,385	$1.93	23d	1	0.56mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	717	$1,350	$1.88	23d	1	0.56mi
4400 SE Naef Rd Portland, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,620	$1.88	7d	9	0.56mi
3190 Furman Dr Lake Oswego, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	648	$1,554	$2.40	43d	1	0.85mi
2600 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,378	$2.30	23d	3	1.32mi
5200 SE Jennings Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	423	$1,497	$3.54	3d	2	1.34mi
2295 SE Courtney Ave Portland, OR	1.0	1.0	727	$1,195	$1.64	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $69,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-04-10
   listed $69,900 Active 1757-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1757 chars)

   Adorable Retro Gem in the Heart of Milwaukie – Easy Living Awaits! Step into charm and comfort with this delightful home full of personality and warmth! Featuring honey-colored walls and a cozy retro vibe, this home offers affordable, easy-maintenance living in a peaceful senior community. The inviting layout boasts a great flow, with both a formal dining room and a spacious dining area—perfect for hosting gatherings or enjoying quiet meals at home. A beautifully lit built-in hutch adds character and function, creating a standout focal point. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with charming built-ins and an abundance of closet space. The bathroom has been thoughtfully updated with a wonderful tiled walk-in shower, newer vanity, and toilet. A versatile second bedroom also features built-ins—ideal for guests, a den, or a creative craft space. The kitchen is ready for your culinary adventures, offering ample counter space along with a new refrigerator and dishwasher. Recent Updates Include: 5-year-old roof, New decks, Furnace & heat pump (2023), Stackable washer & dryer, Water heater, Updated landscaping & new French drain, Insulated and wired Tuff Shed for extra storage or workspace. Outside, the backyard is a blank canvas—perfect for garden boxes and growing your own fresh vegetables. Located in the heart of Milwaukie, you’ll love being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Plus, the nearby Trolley Trail is just steps from your door—perfect for peaceful afternoon strolls. Enjoy the tranquility of a welcoming senior community known for its quiet atmosphere and friendly neighbors. Don’t miss this charming and affordable opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $6,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #832

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Grove, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,311
• Household income: $87,418
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1226.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -526.38%
• Current HPI: 292.1818
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $69,900 RMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2018): $55 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.