9616 Monticello Dr · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1988 3,920 sqft lot $179/sqft · 19% below area Est $383k · 19% under $205/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Stables
• Golf courses

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COUNTRY CLUB
• AIRPLANE LANDING STRIPS
• GOLF COURSES
• TENNIS COURTS
• STABLES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District; Listing terms include conventional, FHA, VA, cash, and 1031 exchange
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly association fee ($205) covering full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, management fees, and security; Community features include: boat ramp, campground, clubhouse, community pool, gated/guarded entrance, golf, horse facilities, jogging/bike path, park, perimeter fencing, playground, pool, restaurant, RV parking, stables, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with two single doors (side-by-side) and garage door opener; Garage faces rear
• Security: Security gate; Security guard; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Aerobic septic / Septic; MUD water (individual water meter); Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Asphalt access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Gated community (Pecan Plantation)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1988
• Exterior features: Covered porches (front and rear); Deck; Gutters; Sprinkler system; Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass; Few trees; Interior lot; On golf course; Subdivision setting; Undivided parcel

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and ensuite bath
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with dual sinks, garden tub, jetted tub, separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Fireplace provides supplemental heat; Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; One living area; Two dining areas; 10 total rooms; Fireplace in living room (wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Acton Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 981 students, 43% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,583 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,196
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -19.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9616 Monticello Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,728 (0%)	0mo	$310,000	$179	100
9610 Monticello Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+1%)	6mo	$367,500	$211	91
10519 Ravenswood Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (+5%)	2mo	$334,900	$184	79
9620 Monticello Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-13%)	9mo	$337,000	$224	69
9614 Monticello Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+10%)	14mo	$350,000	$184	68
9521 Nutcracker Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-7%)	12mo	$395,000	$245	66
9420 Gleneagles Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0	1,884 (+9%)	1mo	$360,000	$191	65
5525 Wedgefield Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,967 (+14%)	11mo	$350,000	$178	53
10210 Ravenswood Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (-0%)	14mo	$379,900	$220	49
10307 Ravenswood Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,902 (+10%)	10mo	$390,000	$205	46
9605 Bellechase Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,882 (+9%)	15mo	$340,000	$181	43
9302 S Longwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,964 (+14%)	0mo	$119,900	$61	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-64,137
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-56,694
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,549/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $255,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-220	+0% $-308	+5% $-395	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-405	+0% $-308	+5% $-210	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-229	base $-308	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Titleist Ln Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1471	$2,600	$1.77	18d	1	0.72mi
8911 Hickory Hill Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$2,500	$1.18	45d	1	1.24mi
8701 Bellechase Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1601	$2,500	$1.56	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $310,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Option Contract 936-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   price $310,000 936-char remark
4. 2026-04-21
   listed $320,000 Active 936-char remark
5. 2022-12-20
   soldstatus
6. 2022-12-16
   soldstatus Closed 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

7. 2022-11-29
   status Pending 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

8. 2022-11-22
   historical Active Option Contract 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

9. 2022-11-09
   price $299,900 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

10. 2022-11-01
    listed $300,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Great home with golf view! 2 car rear entry garage with offset in garage for golf cart storage. Office in garage with large storage closet. Built-in kitchen appliances, covered porch & decked patio, wood-burning fireplace with brick hearth, built-in cabinets & hutch, chair railing in dining room, primary bathroom with jetted tub, dual sinks & walk-in shower, sprinkler system. This home is ready for the next buyer's personal touch.

11. 1991-04-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,549 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,124/yr (+$177/mo · 59.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,549
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$9,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,181
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Plantation, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-11-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2022-11-01 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 1991-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,549 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.