4705 Ernest Dr · Forest Park, GA 30297

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1981 0.30 ac lot $70/sqft · 40% below area Est $218k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1853 sq. ft. ranch in quiet Forest Park neighborhood. 3 large bedrooms, family room, bonus room, dining kitchen combo. This would be an excellent flip or rental. Cash or conventional financing only. Sold as-is without a Seller's Property Disclosure. No utilities will be activated prior to closing.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.2% in Forest Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $130k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.45%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,874
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -40.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4695 College St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-11%)	15mo	$135,000	$82	58
836 Catherine St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,810 (-2%)	24mo	$215,000	$119	58
4955 Bartlett Rd	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,896 (+2%)	20mo	$170,000	$90	48
867 Catherine St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,590 (-14%)	20mo	$80,000	$50	40
862 Alpine Way	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,638 (-12%)	20mo	$185,000	$113	27
686 North Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-15%)	21mo	$210,000	$133	27
4617 Hendrix Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,104 (+14%)	24mo	$215,000	$102	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,877
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,857
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30297

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,381/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $542	-5% $505	+0% $468	+5% $431	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $402	+0% $468	+5% $534	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $501	base $468	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4791 Tuong Yen Ct Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,885	$1.19	44d	1	0.42mi
433 North Ave Unit 433 Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$1,995	$1.18	5d	1	1.07mi
351 Kate Dr Forest Park, GA	3.0	2.5	1415	$1,524	$1.08	12d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    historical
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $144,900 New 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    1853 sq. ft. ranch in quiet Forest Park neighborhood. 3 large bedrooms, family room, bonus room, dining kitchen combo. This would be an excellent flip or rental. Cash or conventional financing only. Sold as-is without a Seller's Property Disclosure. No utilities will be activated prior to closing.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $144,900
18. 2026-01-22
    price $159,900
19. 2025-10-18
    historical
20. 2025-09-10
    price $199,900
21. 2025-06-25
    listed $199,900 New
22. 2025-06-25
    listed $209,900 New
23. 2022-08-16
    status Under Contract
24. 2022-08-13
    historical
25. 2022-07-29
    listed $175,000 New
26. 1998-03-13
    soldstatus $62,500
27. 1991-10-29
    soldstatus $55,900
28. 1991-08-09
    soldstatus $51,400
29. 1981-12-23
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,381 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,381 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,381
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,740
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forest Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #12698

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Park, GA
• County: Clayton County · 230,153 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 29,210
• Household income: $45,124
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.04%
• Current HPI: 229.5016
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.96%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+417.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $144,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $144,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2022-08-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-07-29 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 1998-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1991-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 1991-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $51,400 Public Records
• 1981-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,381 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.