2465 38th St · New York, NY 11103

$345,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 29,328 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1929

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Astoria Lights! A Beautifully maintained and fully renovated Co-op building. Prime Location in Astoria. Close to All Amenities, Transportation and all Shopping. A block from 30th Avenue, the most desirable and trendiest area in Astoria and around the corner of Steinway Street. Very close to N and W trains, 15min ride to Manhattan, and also buses. The building amenities consists of a Beautiful roof deck with breathtaking views of Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn, a Lounge with billiards and football tables, Coworking space, Courtyard, Gym, Kids room, Laundry room, Bike room, Stroller parking and Storage. The apartment is located on the 2nd floor front, right above the main entrance

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Breathtaking views
• Coworking space

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• PRIME LOCATION
• CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• LOUNGE WITH BILLIARDS
• COWORKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Reported living area of 29,328

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1929
• Construction: Original construction from 1929
• Exterior features: Located in the Long Island City neighborhood

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $345,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($134/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $97k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,213 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.02% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $133,154
• Equity at exit: $239,621

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $413,749
• Equity at exit: $455,666

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11103

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,175/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,018

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $130	+0% $11	+5% $-108	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-109	+0% $11	+5% $131	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $99	base $11	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $345,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $345,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-13
   price $345,000
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $370,000 Active
10. 2025-05-25
    historical $3,250
11. 2025-05-22
    listed $3,250
12. 2025-05-16
    historical $3,250
13. 2025-04-25
    listed $3,250
14. 2025-01-17
    historical $3,500
15. 2024-11-14
    price $3,500
16. 2024-11-01
    listed $3,700
17. 2024-10-24
    historical $3,700
18. 2024-09-26
    listed $3,700
19. 2022-12-13
    historical
20. 1988-12-16
    soldstatus $4,444,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$5,175
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,911
• − Management: −$2,911
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$5,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $1,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 35,163
• Household income: $93,324
• Rent vs Own: 83.8% rent · 16.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2848.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Asian 13% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.02%
• Current HPI: 363.2787
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-92.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $345,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $370,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-05-25 Rental Removed $3,250 LISTANZA
• 2025-05-22 Listed for Rent $3,250 LISTANZA
• 2025-05-16 Rental Removed $3,250 LISTANZA
• 2025-04-25 Listed for Rent $3,250 LISTANZA
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $3,500 REBNY
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $3,500 REBNY
• 2024-11-01 Listed for Rent $3,700 REBNY
• 2024-10-24 Rental Removed $3,700 REBNY
• 2024-09-26 Listed for Rent $3,700 REBNY
• 2022-12-13 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 1988-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $4,444,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $153,770 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.