293 Dogwood Loop · Sam Rayburn, TX 75951

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2003 0.46 ac lot $70/sqft · 38% below area Est $137k · 38% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE! Calling CASH buyers! Discover this . 46-acre unrestricted haven (3 lots, 50x100 ft) near Lake Sam Rayburn & Angelina River, just 10 mins from boat ramps. The 2003 mobile home has 3 beds, 2 baths, with unfinished 2012 add-ons (2 bedrooms, enclosed porches). This is a perfect handyman project to finish out the additions as you desire. Includes a metal storage building & double carport. A second, well-kept older mobile home offers extra potential. Ideal for a weekend getaway or cozy camp!

Key facts

• Near angelina river
• Double carport
• Boat ramps

Tags

• NEAR LAKE SAM RAYBURN
• NEAR ANGELINA RIVER
• BOAT RAMPS
• METAL STORAGE BUILDING
• DOUBLE CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.46 acre

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.48%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,957
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -37.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 County Road 062a	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	6mo	$140,000	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $17,170
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $54,853
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $510	+0% $486	+5% $461	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $378	-5% $432	+0% $486	+5% $539	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $507	base $486	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 505-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2025-09-26
    listed $90,000 Active 502-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $4,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $85,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $90,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.