16564 SE 103rd Avenue Rd · The Villages, FL 34491

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,141 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2001 9,583 sqft lot $153/sqft · 31% above area Est $134k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 0.22 acres. Features include a newly installed chain-link fenced backyard (2024), well and septic system, and recent updates throughout. Roof replaced in 2022 and bathrooms fully remodeled in 2024. No HOA.

Key facts

• Roof replaced
• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 2001

Tags

• CHAIN-LINK FENCED BACKYARD
• WELL AND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ROOF REPLACED
• BATHROOMS FULLY REMODELED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.17%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,853
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 30.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16653 SE 96th Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (+7%)	12mo	$215,000	$175	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,500
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $26,821
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,328/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $424	+0% $374	+5% $325	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $296	+0% $374	+5% $452	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $419	base $374	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	0.33mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	0.35mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	22d	1	0.76mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	0.80mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.82mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	0.83mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	22d	1	0.87mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	22d	1	1.01mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	1.03mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	1.09mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	1.17mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $174,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $179,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 0.22 acres. Features include a newly installed chain-link fenced backyard (2024), well and septic system, and recent updates throughout. Roof replaced in 2022 and bathrooms fully remodeled in 2024. No HOA.

18. 2026-04-16
    price $189,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 0.22 acres. Features include a newly installed chain-link fenced backyard (2024), well and septic system, and recent updates throughout. Roof replaced in 2022 and bathrooms fully remodeled in 2024. No HOA.

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $192,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on 0.22 acres. Features include a newly installed chain-link fenced backyard (2024), well and septic system, and recent updates throughout. Roof replaced in 2022 and bathrooms fully remodeled in 2024. No HOA.

20. 2009-10-01
    historical
21. 2009-07-06
    listed $69,900
22. 2006-04-12
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2006-04-10
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 2006-01-25
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,328
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $1,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$431
• After-tax cash flow: $4,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $192,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-06 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-10 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-25 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,328 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.