16 Chowan Dr · Portsmouth, VA 23701

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1941 6,969 sqft lot Est $291k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home 1 story home with detached garage located in the Rollingwood neighborhood of Portsmouth.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Portsmouth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Portsmouth City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #107 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hodges Manor Elementary (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 499 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 60% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 300 units permitted in Portsmouth city in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,391
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Croatan Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	1mo	$259,900	$217	71
94 Kansas Ave	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,400 (+1%)	0mo	$295,000	$211	68
83 Wyoming Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	1mo	$275,000	$196	66
104 Oregon Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5	1,515 (+10%)	1mo	$284,900	$188	61
126 Oregon Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+12%)	2mo	$329,900	$213	59
1212 Jewell Ave	0.75mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+1%)	2mo	$300,000	$214	56
39 Pollux Cir W	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (+5%)	0mo	$180,000	$124	54
83 Oregon Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (-8%)	1mo	$269,000	$211	51
34 Pollux Cir W	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-10%)	0mo	$260,000	$208	47
1203 Baskerville Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,550 (+12%)	1mo	$329,000	$212	40
35 Rivercrest Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,562 (+13%)	0mo	$315,000	$202	39
10 Rivercrest Ct	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,198 (-13%)	0mo	$290,000	$242	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $25,496
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $127,964
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23701

• Rents YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,299/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1203 Baskerville Ln Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1550	$900	$0.58	23d	1	0.72mi
1203 Baskerville Ln Portsmouth, VA	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,300	$1.48	12d	1	0.72mi
816 Martin Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	3d	1	0.77mi
840 Lancer Dr Unit 694 Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1202	$1,480	$1.23	17d	1	0.78mi
207 Falcon Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$3,000	$1.74	43d	1	1.02mi
1507 Hodges Ferry Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1827	$1,650	$0.90	43d	1	1.19mi
119 Jacquelyn Dr Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,250	$1.25	3d	1	1.21mi
119 Jacquelyn Dr Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,500	$1.39	23d	1	1.21mi
22 Radford St Portsmouth, VA	4.0	3.0	1651	$2,550	$1.54	3d	1	1.24mi
3717 Scott St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1157	$1,400	$1.21	23d	1	1.30mi
207 Robin Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,950	$1.56	7d	1	1.39mi
3401 Brighton St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1439	$2,195	$1.53	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-26
   price $165,000
3. 2026-03-25
   status Active
4. 2026-03-10
   status Under Contract
5. 2026-01-22
   price $175,000
6. 2025-12-20
   price $185,000
7. 2025-10-30
   listed $195,000 Active
8. 2006-05-15
   soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,299
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $5,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $6,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portsmouth City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103000
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,152
• Composite: 39.01/100
• National rank: #4071
• State rank: #107 of 131 in VA

Livability — Portsmouth

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #5381

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portsmouth, VA
• County: Portsmouth City · 96,366 people
• City population: 96,366
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,298
• Household income: $62,349
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Portsmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 96,730 people
• By 2030: 96,760 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 96,573 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 95,606 · -1.2%
• By 2075: 93,579 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 83,756 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 39% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Portsmouth

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.6) · D 68.6% · R 30.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 39.3pp · 2024: 38.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.6 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+36.5 2012: D+39.6 2008: D+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.96%
• Current HPI: 310.8218
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.92%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+3.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $185,000 REINMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $195,000 REINMLS
• 2006-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,299 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.