22610 N Cabana Ln · Sun City West, AZ 85375

$314,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 341 Days on market

Built 1994 5,794 sqft lot $219/sqft · 10% below area Est $350k · 10% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-Del-Sac, Bright Open Floor Plan* AC replaced in 2021. Upgraded Kitchen, Quartz Counter Tops, Stainless Steel appliances 2021. Expanded Sun Room not included in the SqFft, Covered Patio, Office Area, Great Neighborhood. Carpet in the bedrooms Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed) Cabinets In Garage. All the fantastic Sun City West Amenities Ready to move into this very popular model.

Key facts

• 5,794 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Sun City West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#106 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,916/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 691% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $315k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,619
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -9.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14319 W Pecos Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,366 (-5%)	1mo	$308,560	$226	74
14138 W Caballero Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-13%)	0mo	$359,000	$286	72
14317 W Robertson Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,653 (+15%)	2mo	$342,500	$207	62
14529 W Corral Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$206	61
22900 N Cherokee Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,376 (-4%)	0mo	$448,800	$326	61
13938 W Rico Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,547 (+8%)	2mo	$350,000	$226	61
14520 W Las Brizas Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,336 (-7%)	2mo	$324,000	$243	60
14326 W Domingo Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,271 (-12%)	2mo	$330,000	$260	59
14032 W Rico Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-13%)	1mo	$325,000	$259	57
14428 W Horizon Dr	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,625 (+13%)	1mo	$380,000	$234	51
14602 W Via Montoya --	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,555 (+8%)	2mo	$348,500	$224	50
13766 W Junipero Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,625 (+13%)	2mo	$405,000	$249	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-27,974
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $44,400
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85375

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,073/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,703

Max offer price $314,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22520 N Via de la Caballa Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,400	$2.36	16d	1	0.06mi
14113 W Robertson Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1410	$3,800	$2.70	43d	1	0.13mi
14234 W Via Tercero Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1653	$2,500	$1.51	43d	1	0.20mi
14608 W Horizon Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1778	$2,000	$1.12	43d	1	0.56mi
13758 W Sola Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1351	$3,950	$2.92	1d	1	0.60mi
13714 W Caballero Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1794	$2,800	$1.56	1d	1	0.62mi
13755 W Nogales Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1660	$4,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.65mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,599	$1.19	22d	1	0.71mi
14759 W Gunsight Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	43d	1	0.71mi
21601 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1269	$2,695	$2.12	17d	1	0.86mi
22212 N Cheyenne Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1669	$3,500	$2.10	19d	1	0.87mi
13452 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1378	$3,200	$2.32	1d	1	0.93mi
22816 N Las Positas Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	1d	1	0.93mi
13428 W El Sueno Ct Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1812	$2,850	$1.57	1d	1	0.97mi
14668 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	1.01mi
15136 W Corral Dr Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,100	$1.13	15d	1	1.05mi
15138 W Las Brizas Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1842	$2,895	$1.57	17d	1	1.07mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	15d	1	1.24mi
24750 N 145th Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,099	$2.56	1d	54	1.44mi
14251 W Buckskin Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1793	$1,850	$1.03	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,900 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,900 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,900 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $314,900 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $314,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-Del-Sac, Bright Open Floor Plan* AC replaced in 2021. Upgraded Kitchen, Quartz Counter Tops, Stainless Steel appliances 2021. Expanded Sun Room not included in the SqFft, Covered Patio, Office Area, Great Neighborhood. Carpet in the bedrooms Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed) Cabinets In Garage. All the fantastic Sun City West Amenities Ready to move into this very popular model.

15. 2026-01-17
    price $324,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-Del-Sac, Bright Open Floor Plan* AC replaced in 2021. Upgraded Kitchen, Quartz Counter Tops, Stainless Steel appliances 2021. Expanded Sun Room not included in the SqFft, Covered Patio, Office Area, Great Neighborhood. Carpet in the bedrooms Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed) Cabinets In Garage. All the fantastic Sun City West Amenities Ready to move into this very popular model.

16. 2025-10-20
    price $334,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-Del-Sac, Bright Open Floor Plan* AC replaced in 2021. Upgraded Kitchen, Quartz Counter Tops, Stainless Steel appliances 2021. Expanded Sun Room not included in the SqFft, Covered Patio, Office Area, Great Neighborhood. Carpet in the bedrooms Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed) Cabinets In Garage. All the fantastic Sun City West Amenities Ready to move into this very popular model.

17. 2025-07-12
    listed $339,000 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-Del-Sac, Bright Open Floor Plan* AC replaced in 2021. Upgraded Kitchen, Quartz Counter Tops, Stainless Steel appliances 2021. Expanded Sun Room not included in the SqFft, Covered Patio, Office Area, Great Neighborhood. Carpet in the bedrooms Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed) Cabinets In Garage. All the fantastic Sun City West Amenities Ready to move into this very popular model.

18. 2011-09-30
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!! Well kept Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-De-Sac* Great Neighborhood. Bright Open Floor Plan* Granite Transformation Counter Tops* Sun Room* Covered Patio* Office W/Built In Desk* Tile Throughout Except For Bedrooms* Upgraded Carpet* Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed)* Cabinets In Garage* Non-Slip Epoxy Walkway* Newer Appliances* Your Going To Love This On! Come Take A Look!** Furniture Is Available Outside Of Escrow.

19. 2011-09-30
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!! Well kept Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-De-Sac* Great Neighborhood. Bright Open Floor Plan* Granite Transformation Counter Tops* Sun Room* Covered Patio* Office W/Built In Desk* Tile Throughout Except For Bedrooms* Upgraded Carpet* Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed)* Cabinets In Garage* Non-Slip Epoxy Walkway* Newer Appliances* Your Going To Love This On! Come Take A Look!** Furniture Is Available Outside Of Escrow.

20. 2011-08-20
    status Pending 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!! Well kept Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-De-Sac* Great Neighborhood. Bright Open Floor Plan* Granite Transformation Counter Tops* Sun Room* Covered Patio* Office W/Built In Desk* Tile Throughout Except For Bedrooms* Upgraded Carpet* Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed)* Cabinets In Garage* Non-Slip Epoxy Walkway* Newer Appliances* Your Going To Love This On! Come Take A Look!** Furniture Is Available Outside Of Escrow.

21. 2011-08-05
    listed $154,900 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!! Well kept Expanded Alpine Model On Cul-De-Sac* Great Neighborhood. Bright Open Floor Plan* Granite Transformation Counter Tops* Sun Room* Covered Patio* Office W/Built In Desk* Tile Throughout Except For Bedrooms* Upgraded Carpet* Spacious Guest Room (Holds A King Size Bed)* Cabinets In Garage* Non-Slip Epoxy Walkway* Newer Appliances* Your Going To Love This On! Come Take A Look!** Furniture Is Available Outside Of Escrow.

22. 2004-01-29
    soldstatus $148,000
23. 2004-01-27
    soldstatus $148,000
24. 2004-01-22
    historical
25. 2003-09-09
    listed $154,900
26. 1996-08-09
    soldstatus $124,000
27. 1996-08-09
    soldstatus $124,000
28. 1995-06-16
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,073 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,078 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$2,073
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,800
• − Management: −$2,800
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$3,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$771
• After-tax cash flow: $2,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City West

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #14878

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City West, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 27,680
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,680
• Household income: $63,928
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.20%
• Current HPI: 239.3422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+194.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $314,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $334,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $339,000 ARMLS
• 2011-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-30 Sold (MLS) $150,000 ARMLS
• 2011-08-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-08-05 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2004-01-29 Sold (MLS) $148,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-09-09 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 1996-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,073 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.