1812 Potomac Ln · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$251,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · Land · 123 Days on market

Built 2026 4,792 sqft lot $153/sqft · 7% below area Est $270k · 7% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 1 story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage, and Covered Patio. Energy efficient, and smart home features included.

Key facts

• New construction
• Covered patio
• Energy efficient

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• COVERED PATIO
• ENERGY EFFICIENT
• SMART HOME FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $198,478 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,499
• List price: $251,990
• Delta: -6.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $122,816
• Equity at exit: $227,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $373,191
• Equity at exit: $489,561

Cash invested: $70,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,780/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,273

Max offer price $219,075

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-140	+0% $-227	+5% $-315	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-306	+0% $-227	+5% $-149	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-163	base $-227	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,998
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	14d	1	0.04mi
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	5d	1	0.04mi
1701 Teton River Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,895	$1.33	45d	1	0.11mi
1621 Fawn Creek Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1681	$2,325	$1.38	0d	5	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $251,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,990 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,990 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $261,990 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 1 story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage, and Covered Patio. Energy efficient, and smart home features included.

17. 2026-05-16
    price $261,990 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    The Estero Plan is located in the community of Creekside Ranch in Blue Ridge, Tx. This 1 story home features 1,621 sf. of living space, with 4 well-proportioned bedrooms provide ample space for family members or guests. 2 bathrooms offer convenience and privacy. An open concept living area creates a seamless flow between the island kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for family activities and entertaining. The Modern well-equipped kitchen includes an electric range, ample counter space, and storage. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom, providing a private retreat. In every bedroom you'll have carpeted floors and a closet. Laminate flooring in the remainder of the home makes cleaning a breeze. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining guests. Full two car garage spaces for ample parking and storage. Contact us today and find your home at Asher Oaks in Bonham, TX. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades that require an additional charge, and standard features will vary in each community and subject change without notice. Call for details.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $266,990 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    The Estero Plan is located in the community of Creekside Ranch in Blue Ridge, Tx. This 1 story home features 1,621 sf. of living space, with 4 well-proportioned bedrooms provide ample space for family members or guests. 2 bathrooms offer convenience and privacy. An open concept living area creates a seamless flow between the island kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for family activities and entertaining. The Modern well-equipped kitchen includes an electric range, ample counter space, and storage. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom, providing a private retreat. In every bedroom you'll have carpeted floors and a closet. Laminate flooring in the remainder of the home makes cleaning a breeze. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining guests. Full two car garage spaces for ample parking and storage. Contact us today and find your home at Asher Oaks in Bonham, TX. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades that require an additional charge, and standard features will vary in each community and subject change without notice. Call for details.

19. 2026-04-04
    price $261,990 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    The Estero Plan is located in the community of Creekside Ranch in Blue Ridge, Tx. This 1 story home features 1,621 sf. of living space, with 4 well-proportioned bedrooms provide ample space for family members or guests. 2 bathrooms offer convenience and privacy. An open concept living area creates a seamless flow between the island kitchen, dining, and living spaces, perfect for family activities and entertaining. The Modern well-equipped kitchen includes an electric range, ample counter space, and storage. The primary bedroom features an en-suite bathroom, providing a private retreat. In every bedroom you'll have carpeted floors and a closet. Laminate flooring in the remainder of the home makes cleaning a breeze. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining guests. Full two car garage spaces for ample parking and storage. Contact us today and find your home at Asher Oaks in Bonham, TX. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades that require an additional charge, and standard features will vary in each community and subject change without notice. Call for details.

20. 2026-02-18
    listed $266,990 Active 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 1 story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage, and Covered Patio. Energy efficient, and smart home features included.

21. 2026-02-18
    listed $266,990 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    New Construction by DR Horton. This beautiful 1 story home offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage, and Covered Patio. Energy efficient, and smart home features included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,115
• − Property taxes: −$3,780
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$7,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $261,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Listed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Listed $266,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $177 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.