9302 S Longwood Dr · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1995 4,356 sqft lot $61/sqft · 69% below area $204/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTPLE OFFERS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HIGHEST AND BEST DEADLINE IS 5-18-26 BY 10:00 AM. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with open concept living in in the gated community of Pecan Plantation. Property damaged due to fire. No utilties will be turn on by any party for inspections or appraisals. Freddie Mac's First Look period for owner occupants only expires 5-20-26.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.63%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $386,410
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -68.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9302 S Longwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,964 (0%)	0mo	$119,900	$61	100
9318 Monticello Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,067 (+5%)	5mo	$362,000	$175	73
3714 Tremont Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,012 (+2%)	2mo	$530,000	$263	72
9420 Gleneagles Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,884 (-4%)	0mo	$360,000	$191	69
9006 N Longwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,056 (+5%)	2mo	$365,000	$178	62
9426 S Longwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,113 (+8%)	8mo	$399,900	$189	62
6605 Pinehurst Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,160 (+10%)	2mo	$465,000	$215	60
9406 S Longwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,244 (+14%)	8mo	$410,000	$183	55
9401 Gimme Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	2,213 (+13%)	6mo	$400,000	$181	52
8928 Green Leaves Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,169 (+10%)	0mo	$425,000	$196	48
9616 Monticello Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-12%)	0mo	$310,000	$179	45
9610 Monticello Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-11%)	6mo	$367,500	$211	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $32,130
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $112,008
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,281/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Titleist Ln Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1471	$2,600	$1.77	17d	1	0.31mi
8911 Hickory Hill Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$2,500	$1.18	44d	1	1.04mi
8701 Bellechase Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1601	$2,500	$1.56	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   MULTPLE OFFERS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HIGHEST AND BEST DEADLINE IS 5-18-26 BY 10:00 AM. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with open concept living in in the gated community of Pecan Plantation. Property damaged due to fire. No utilties will be turn on by any party for inspections or appraisals. Freddie Mac's First Look period for owner occupants only expires 5-20-26.

2. 2026-04-24
   status Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   MULTPLE OFFERS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HIGHEST AND BEST DEADLINE IS 5-18-26 BY 10:00 AM. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with open concept living in in the gated community of Pecan Plantation. Property damaged due to fire. No utilties will be turn on by any party for inspections or appraisals. Freddie Mac's First Look period for owner occupants only expires 5-20-26.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $119,900 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   MULTPLE OFFERS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. HIGHEST AND BEST DEADLINE IS 5-18-26 BY 10:00 AM. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with open concept living in in the gated community of Pecan Plantation. Property damaged due to fire. No utilties will be turn on by any party for inspections or appraisals. Freddie Mac's First Look period for owner occupants only expires 5-20-26.

4. 1993-02-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,281 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,281 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$4,281
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,783
• After-tax cash flow: $6,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Plantation, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 1993-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,281 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.