105 N Lake Dr · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$129,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable A Frame house with a lake view on a level lot. It has one bath and 2 bedroom with a balcony upstairs to enjoy the lake view. Gas wall heater and new roof. It has hardwood and carpet floor coverings. You can drive your golf cart or side by side to do your shopping in town. It is a nice get away to relax from the city and enjoy seeing wildlife in your yard, play golf or use the area lakes. Come see it today before this house is sold. It will not last at this price.

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• Newer roof
• Private dock

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEWER HVAC
• NEWER ROOF
• PRIVATE DOCK
• UPPER OR LOWER DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $130k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,825 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,453
• Equity at exit: $19,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,981
• Equity at exit: $11,223

Cash invested: $36,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $352/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $129,800

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $267	+0% $230	+5% $193	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $180	+0% $230	+5% $280	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $263	base $230	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,450
• Closing costs: $3,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,800 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,800 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,800 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,800 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,800 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,800 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,800 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,800 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $129,800 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $352 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$479/yr (+$40/mo · 135.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,271
• − Property taxes: −$352
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$3,776
• Taxable income: $635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+380.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $129,800 FSBO.com
• 2021-12-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CARMLS
• 2021-12-01 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-04-17 Listed $79,900 CARMLS
• 2019-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-18 Sold (MLS) $39,900 CARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-07-03 Listed $39,900 CARMLS
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $352 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.