638 Main St · Cairo, NY 12413

$199,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,143 sqft · MultiFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 0.48 ac lot $64/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

Key facts

• Mixed use property
• Enclosed porch
• Work areas

Tags

• MIXED USE PROPERTY
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• MECHANIC'S PIT
• WORK AREAS
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.87%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,103
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -58.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $173,890
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $461,073
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12413

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $1,020

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,592
1× unit	0	1.5	$1,448
Total (2 units)			$3,040

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

17. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

18. 2026-04-22
    status Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

19. 2026-04-19
    historical Active Under Contract 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

20. 2026-03-02
    listed $199,900 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    A Commercial Mixed Use Property in the Heart of Cairo on Main St on . 48 acres! There are currently 2 units: 1 occupied apartment and a former auto body garage. The apartment has 3 to 4 bedrooms, a living room, a kitchen, a dining room, & an enclosed porch. The apartment has approximately 1,974 sq ft with 2 stories. The garage has approximately 1,170 sq ft. with an office area, 2 - 1/2 baths, a mechanic's pit, and work areas. The building needs extensive repairs & improvements. The property is across from the Old Factory Brewing Company at the fork between Main St/County Route 23B & County Route 84. It's a great location amidst the resurgence of Cairo. A great investment opportunity! View our 3D virtual tour and multi-media website of the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,918
• − Management: −$2,918
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $9,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,312
• After-tax cash flow: $9,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its roof, exterior siding, flooring, interior walls, bathrooms, HVAC system, and electrical system. The property is currently in poor condition and lacks landscaping, making it unattractive to potential buyers. However, with the right updates, it has the potential to be a great investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the garage appears to be damaged and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls are in poor condition, with peeling paint and potential structural issues.
• Major bathrooms — The bathrooms appear to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and potential plumbing issues.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major electrical system — The electrical system also appears to be in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce the risk of leaks.
• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale replace flooring in garage — A new floor will make the garage more functional and attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's interior appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale update bathrooms — Upgraded bathrooms will make the home more attractive to potential buyers and increase its resale value.
• Resale replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale repair and replace electrical system — A new electrical system will improve the home's safety and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the garage appears to be damaged and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls are in poor condition, with peeling paint and potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · The bathrooms appear to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and potential plumbing issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be outdated and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
electrical system · The electrical system also appears to be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce the risk of leaks. ↑
• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale replace flooring in garage — A new floor will make the garage more functional and attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's interior appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale update bathrooms — Upgraded bathrooms will make the home more attractive to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale repair and replace electrical system — A new electrical system will improve the home's safety and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cairo, NY
• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 3,406

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.58%
• Current HPI: 406.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $199,900 HVCRMLS