2990 San Pablo Dam Rd #8 · San Pablo, CA 94806

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

$207/sqft · 61% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super Clean and Updated Mobile in the Frontier Mobile Home Park. Special Features include Dual Pane Windows Side X Side Washer and Dryer in Laundry Area, and 2 Parking Spaces. The extra room could be used as a second bedroom with a closet addition. Schedule a Showing Appointment right away!!!

Key facts

• 2 parking spaces
• Dual pane windows
• Garage

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• SIDE X SIDE WASHER AND DRYER
• 2 PARKING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $129k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 61.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $30,965
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $94,210
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5405 Morrow Dr Unit 1 San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,225	$3.18	43d	1	0.08mi
6090 N Arlington Blvd Unit B San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,650	$4.12	43d	1	0.44mi
1330 Contra Costa Ave San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	721	$2,895	$4.02	5d	8	0.50mi
13728 San Pablo Ave San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	526	$1,563	$2.97	24d	1	0.56mi
3535 El Portal Dr El Sobrante, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	969	$3,212	$3.31	1d	16	0.77mi
1680 24th St San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	636	$1,895	$2.98	1d	1	0.91mi
14349 San Pablo Ave San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	43d	1	0.98mi
2014 22nd St San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,800	$3.60	24d	1	0.99mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	12d	1	1.09mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	43d	1	1.09mi
2031 Market Ave Unit private room San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	43d	1	1.12mi
2031 Market Ave #124 San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	691	$1,000	$1.45	18d	1	1.12mi
14761 San Pablo Ave Unit 6 San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,550	$3.40	43d	1	1.17mi
2300 Lancaster Dr Richmond, CA	1.0	1.0	668	$1,782	$2.67	2d	13	1.20mi
649 El Centro Rd Unit 1546147P El Sobrante, CA	1.0	1.0	592	$1,879	$3.17	14d	1	1.31mi
760 Alhambra Rd El Sobrante, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$2,150	$2.97	24d	1	1.43mi
1333 Market Ave Unit 3 San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	24d	1	1.47mi
1333 Market Ave Unit 2 San Pablo, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,549	$2.82	43d	1	1.47mi
4481 Appian Way El Sobrante, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	750	$3,033	$4.04	24d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $129,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Super Clean and Updated Mobile in the Frontier Mobile Home Park. Special Features include Dual Pane Windows Side X Side Washer and Dryer in Laundry Area, and 2 Parking Spaces. The extra room could be used as a second bedroom with a closet addition. Schedule a Showing Appointment right away!!!

16. 2019-05-04
    historical
17. 2019-03-12
    listed New
18. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
19. 2018-05-25
    status Pending
20. 2018-04-17
    listed $59,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $8,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Pablo

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #21354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Pablo, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+118.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $129,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-05-04 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2019-03-12 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) $60,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-05-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-04-17 Listed $59,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.