9631 Spanish Moss Way #3911 · Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$412,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · Condo public records · 234 Days on market

Built 2007 $946/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A PIECE OF PARADISE in the SPECTACULAR Gated Community of MARBELLA at Spanish Wells Golf & Country Club! This 3Bd/2Bth CORNER Condo residence is offered beautifully furnished. The expansive floorplan boasts 2,095 sq feet giving it the feeling of living in a single-family home. This split floor plan is perfect for entertaining guests. The large open kitchen features new GE Profile appliances, granite counter tops, island, breakfast nook and separate formal dining room. The spacious primary bedroom offers private access to the lanai, en-suite bathroom with dual sinks, giant walk-in closet, and separate soaking tub & shower. Enjoy the western facing screened lanai on the lake maki

Key facts

• Water views
• Screened lanai
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ACCESS TO LANAI
• SCREENED LANAI
• WATER VIEWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• IMPACT-RESISTANT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (up to 2; cats, dogs, caged birds, and one fish tank up to 55 gal.)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee covers management, cable TV, golf, pest control, reserve fund, road maintenance, sewer, street lights, security, trash and water; Community features include golf course, elevator, and condo-hotel community; 342 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Covered parking (1 covered space); Attached carport; Driveway; Guest parking; Paved parking; One space
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detector(s); Community security included in association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: One-story; Entry level 1; East-facing; Has view; Resale property
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Pond on lot; Cul-de-sac lot; Zero lot line; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Freezer; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Dual sinks; Separate shower; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans; Humidity control
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Bathtub; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Family/dining room; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; Cable TV; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Double-hung windows; Impact glass; Window coverings; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $412k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $412k).
• Recommended offer: $363k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,253/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $257k; list at $412k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-44,793
• Equity at exit: $61,431

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-48,930
• Equity at exit: $35,622

Cash invested: $115,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 835
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,161
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,516/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$946
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,103
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,521

Max offer price $412,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,000
• Closing costs: $12,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9631 Spanish Moss Way #3922 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$6,000	$3.99	3d	1	0.03mi
9621 Spanish Moss Way Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$5,125	$3.41	23d	2	0.04mi
9651 Spanish Moss Way #4121 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1857	$4,800	$2.58	23d	1	0.09mi
28251 Lisbon Ct #3412 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1637	$5,500	$3.36	23d	1	0.12mi
9601 Spanish Moss Way #3613 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$4,850	$3.22	23d	1	0.12mi
9977 Treasure Cay Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$8,500	$4.17	23d	1	0.21mi
28387 Las Palmas Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1705	$6,200	$3.64	23d	1	0.25mi
28151 Dovewood Ct Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1233	$2,245	$1.82	3d	15	0.28mi
9940 Treasure Cay Ln Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$8,500	$4.03	23d	1	0.36mi
28460 Highgate Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1871	$10,500	$5.61	23d	1	0.48mi
9908 White Sands Pl Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$7,500	$4.11	23d	1	0.51mi
28119 Tamberine Ct #1412 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$5,800	$3.64	23d	1	0.51mi
27655 Tennessee St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,000	$1.58	23d	1	0.72mi
27655 Tennessee St #657 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	3d	1	0.72mi
9834 Kentucky St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$3,450	$2.59	23d	1	0.75mi
27911 Hacienda East Blvd Unit 217B Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	3d	1	0.77mi
27640 Michigan St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$8,995	$5.96	23d	1	0.77mi
10004 Connecticut St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,100	$2.18	23d	1	0.79mi
28105 Mandolin Ct #213 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	23d	1	0.83mi
27791 Hacienda East Blvd Unit 222D Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	1528	$4,200	$2.75	23d	1	0.84mi
27750 Hacienda East Blvd Unit 208B Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	1528	$3,800	$2.49	23d	1	0.93mi
14907 Sterling Oaks Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1760	$6,500	$3.69	23d	1	0.93mi
27681 Hacienda East Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	1675	$3,000	$1.79	23d	1	0.94mi
15985 Arbor View Blvd Naples, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1208	$2,062	$1.71	13d	14	0.96mi
10671 Hampton St Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	19d	1	0.98mi
9111 Las Maderas Dr #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1624	$7,500	$4.62	23d	1	1.01mi
28052 Palmas Grandes Ln #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$7,200	$4.80	23d	1	1.02mi
27581 Hacienda East Blvd Unit 1256822P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	1808	$3,133	$1.73	19d	1	1.03mi
27439 Pollard Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$9,500	$6.12	23d	1	1.05mi
28399 Del Lago Way Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	2326	$10,000	$4.30	23d	1	1.07mi
27414 Pollard Dr Unit 1073493P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$5,065	$3.18	3d	1	1.08mi
9030 Las Maderas Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1432	$2,500	$1.75	23d	1	1.09mi
9050 Las Maderas Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,100	$1.54	23d	1	1.10mi
9021 Las Maderas Dr #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1674	$7,500	$4.48	23d	1	1.10mi
1214 Sweetwater Ln #2306 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1378	$6,500	$4.72	23d	1	1.10mi
8990 Palmas Grandes Blvd #201 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1797	$5,000	$2.78	23d	1	1.10mi
8981 Palmas Grandes Blvd #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1791	$7,500	$4.19	23d	1	1.10mi
28452 Del Lago Way Bonita Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	2201	$7,700	$3.50	23d	1	1.15mi
27251 Morgan Rd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.16mi
28790 Versol Dr Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$3,391	$3.15	1d	19	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $946 · $11,352/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $412,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-03-23
   price $412,000
3. 2026-01-30
   price $420,000
4. 2025-10-09
   listed $427,000 Active
5. 2025-07-17
   historical
6. 2025-04-25
   price $465,000
7. 2025-03-21
   listed $475,000 Active
8. 2025-03-08
   listed $475,000 Active
9. 2017-03-08
   soldstatus $257,000
10. 2017-02-28
    price $257,000
11. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus $257,000 Sold
12. 2017-02-21
    price $264,900
13. 2017-01-28
    status Pending With Contingencies
14. 2017-01-17
    price $264,900
15. 2016-11-09
    price $269,900
16. 2016-09-23
    price $280,000
17. 2016-07-01
    price $285,000
18. 2016-04-20
    listed $292,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,516 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,516 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,078
• − Property taxes: −$3,516
• − Insurance: −$2,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,043
• − Management: −$5,043
• − HOA: −$11,352
• − Depreciation: −$11,985
• Taxable income: $955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $6,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+40.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $412,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $420,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $427,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $465,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $475,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $475,000 BEARMLS
• 2017-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $257,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-28 Price Changed $257,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-02-24 Sold (MLS) $257,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-02-21 Price Changed $264,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-17 Price Changed $264,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-11-09 Price Changed $269,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed $280,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-07-01 Price Changed $285,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-04-20 Listed $292,900 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,516 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.