25062 Lindsey Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$297,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2024 5,475 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the inviting Enclave at Dobbin, this well-designed Saratoga floor plan offers 1,717 sq. ft. of comfortable single-story living. The home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a bright open layout that effortlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room. Thoughtful design elements enhance functionality, while the spacious common areas make everyday living and entertaining easy. Located in a quiet, thoughtfully planned community with convenient access to Magnolia’s shopping, dining, and major routes.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Primary suite
• Backyard

Tags

• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DARK CABINETS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Prestige Associates Mgmt Group; Annual association fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2024); Single-story entry (slab foundation)
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2024; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Five total rooms

🏗️ New construction. The $297,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,370.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-684 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (44.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,372 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.43%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,370
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25062 Lindsey Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+1%)	2mo	$300,400	$175	96
10111 Basil Beebalm Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+1%)	9mo	$297,400	$173	88
9315 Central Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-6%)	5mo	$265,000	$165	67
27394 Axis Deer Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,689 (-0%)	6mo	$262,542	$155	65
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-3%)	6mo	$279,725	$171	62
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-0%)	4mo	$281,125	$166	61
27224 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-3%)	9mo	$281,375	$172	60
27390 Axis Deer Trl	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-0%)	8mo	$277,325	$164	58
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-6%)	5mo	$256,724	$161	52
10249 Badger Run Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-8%)	6mo	$266,475	$170	52
10155 Red Snapper Rd	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (+10%)	6mo	$283,416	$152	42
10256 Badger Run Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (+13%)	8mo	$292,455	$152	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $104,496
• Equity at exit: $253,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $332,702
• Equity at exit: $546,640

Cash invested: $78,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax from tax record: −$689 /mo · $8,269/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,925

Max offer price $165,372

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-525	-5% $-605	+0% $-684	+5% $-764	+10% $-844
Rent	-10% $-847	-5% $-766	+0% $-684	+5% $-603	+10% $-522
Rate	-1.0pp $-543	-0.5pp $-613	base $-684	+0.5pp $-757	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,342
• Closing costs: $8,441
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	3d	1	0.16mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	44d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $297,400 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,400 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,400 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,400 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,400 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,400 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,400 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,400 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $297,400 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 517-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $300,400 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,269 · $689/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,269 · $689/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,761
• − Property taxes: −$8,269
• − Insurance: −$1,407
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,185
• Taxable loss: −$13,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $297,400 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $300,400 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $300,400 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $300,400 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $300,400 HARMLS

Property tax history

+200.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,269 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.