440 W 1st St · Rush City, MN 55069

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A smart purchase for the first time homebuyer. All maintenance free siding. Newer roof, natural gas and updated electric on a large, deep city lot, make this a great starter home. A lot of home for the money!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#355 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rush City Public School District (rural): math 37% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #195 of 301 in MN (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $289k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $273,577 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-26,769
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,377
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55069

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $398	+0% $316	+5% $234	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $100	-5% $208	+0% $316	+5% $424	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $389	base $316	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-03-17
   listed $289,000 Active
4. 2026-03-13
   historical $289,000
5. 2008-02-06
   historical
6. 2007-07-06
   listed $169,900
7. 2004-09-16
   soldstatus $120,000
8. 2004-08-19
   soldstatus $120,000 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   A smart purchase for the first time homebuyer. All maintenance free siding. Newer roof, natural gas and updated electric on a large, deep city lot, make this a great starter home. A lot of home for the money!

9. 2004-08-05
   historical 210-char remark

   Show marketing remark (210 chars)

   A smart purchase for the first time homebuyer. All maintenance free siding. Newer roof, natural gas and updated electric on a large, deep city lot, make this a great starter home. A lot of home for the money!

10. 2004-07-22
    listed $125,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    A smart purchase for the first time homebuyer. All maintenance free siding. Newer roof, natural gas and updated electric on a large, deep city lot, make this a great starter home. A lot of home for the money!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,875 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,626
• − Management: −$2,626
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $4,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rush City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2732550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $60,045
• Composite: 37.08/100
• National rank: #4499
• State rank: #195 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rush City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #8328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rush City, MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,936

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 428.9296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+131.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $289,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Coming Soon $289,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-06 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-22 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.