2967 Barry Rd · North Port, FL 34286

$321,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Land · 60 Days on market

Built 2025 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Brand-new and move-in ready with builder warranties, custom-style upgrades, and attractive buyer incentives. This completed new construction home offers quartz countertops, beautiful shaker cabinetry with dark hardware, wood-look flooring throughout (no carpet), tray ceilings in the main living area and primary suite, and modern lighting fixtures already installed. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers added backyard space and privacy, plus the rare opportunity to add a brand-new in-ground pool for only $29,000. Buyer incentives available, including assistance with closing costs and options to buy down the interest rate. A well-located home that combines modern design, everyday comfort, and the peace of mind of new construction. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Modern interior
• Designer details
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MODERN INTERIOR
• DESIGNER DETAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 40% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $321k implies a 1589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,840 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-65,553
• Equity at exit: $47,862

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-85,869
• Equity at exit: $27,754

Cash invested: $89,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34286

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 837
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,683
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $295,255

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-55	+0% $-146	+5% $-237	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-233	+0% $-146	+5% $-59	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-64	base $-146	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,250
• Closing costs: $9,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 Ohana Way North Port, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,799	$1.95	14d	33	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $321,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $321,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $321,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   price $321,000 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Brand-new and move-in ready with builder warranties, custom-style upgrades, and attractive buyer incentives. This completed new construction home offers quartz countertops, beautiful shaker cabinetry with dark hardware, wood-look flooring throughout (no carpet), tray ceilings in the main living area and primary suite, and modern lighting fixtures already installed. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers added backyard space and privacy, plus the rare opportunity to add a brand-new in-ground pool for only $29,000. Buyer incentives available, including assistance with closing costs and options to buy down the interest rate. A well-located home that combines modern design, everyday comfort, and the peace of mind of new construction. Schedule your private showing today.

5. 2026-04-03
   price $324,700 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Brand-new and move-in ready with builder warranties, custom-style upgrades, and attractive buyer incentives. This completed new construction home offers quartz countertops, beautiful shaker cabinetry with dark hardware, wood-look flooring throughout (no carpet), tray ceilings in the main living area and primary suite, and modern lighting fixtures already installed. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers added backyard space and privacy, plus the rare opportunity to add a brand-new in-ground pool for only $29,000. Buyer incentives available, including assistance with closing costs and options to buy down the interest rate. A well-located home that combines modern design, everyday comfort, and the peace of mind of new construction. Schedule your private showing today.

6. 2026-04-02
   listed $229,000 Active 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Brand-new and move-in ready with builder warranties, custom-style upgrades, and attractive buyer incentives. This completed new construction home offers quartz countertops, beautiful shaker cabinetry with dark hardware, wood-look flooring throughout (no carpet), tray ceilings in the main living area and primary suite, and modern lighting fixtures already installed. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers added backyard space and privacy, plus the rare opportunity to add a brand-new in-ground pool for only $29,000. Buyer incentives available, including assistance with closing costs and options to buy down the interest rate. A well-located home that combines modern design, everyday comfort, and the peace of mind of new construction. Schedule your private showing today.

7. 2026-03-11
   historical
8. 2026-02-11
   listed $339,900 Active
9. 2026-02-06
   price $385,500
10. 2026-02-05
    historical
11. 2025-12-23
    price $385,698
12. 2025-12-12
    price $385,700
13. 2025-11-04
    price $385,900
14. 2025-11-03
    price $375,000
15. 2025-10-26
    listed $349,700 Active
16. 2024-05-08
    soldstatus $19,000 Closed
17. 2024-04-11
    status Pending
18. 2024-02-16
    listed $19,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,664 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,880/yr (+$157/mo · 239.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,981
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$1,605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$9,338
• Taxable loss: −$7,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,812
• After-tax cash flow: $63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,534
• Household income: $80,553
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.36%
• Current HPI: 297.3707
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1509.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $321,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $324,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $385,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $385,698 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $385,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $385,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Listed $349,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Sold (MLS) $19,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-16 Listed $19,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · +26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.