1348 Elliott · Paradise, CA 95969

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Land · 149 Days on market

Built 2021 $97/sqft · 29% below area Est $98k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is motivated and seller carry may be available. Please bring any reasonable offer. Welcome to this nearly new manufactured home, completed in 2022 and located in the heart of the rapidly growing community of Paradise. Offering approximately 720 square feet, this well-designed home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a desirable split-bedroom floor plan and a bright, great-room layout that flows seamlessly between the living room, kitchen, and dining area. Modern finishes shine throughout, including stone-look laminate countertops, stylish cabinetry, sleek black appliances, carpeted bedrooms, and durable wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living spaces. The home feels fresh, clean, and move-in ready, making it an affordable and attractive option for comfortable living. Outside, you’ll appreciate the concrete parking pad with carport, convenient carport, and redwood stairs and landings at both the front and rear entrances. Situated in a family park with a central Paradise location, this home is close to shopping, services, transportation and even guest parking adjacent to the home — everything you need right at your fingertips. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the area’s abundant recreational opportunities, including nearby lakes, hiking and biking trails, fishing, ATV and dirt-bike riding, canoeing, kayaking, and more. Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity to own a nearly new home in a thriving community — come take a look and see why this one just might feel like home.

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Black appliances
• Great-room layout

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT-ROOM LAYOUT
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• CONCRETE PARKING PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.89%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,990
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -29.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $29,435
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $92,529
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1090 Shadowbrook Way Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	640	$1,150	$1.80	13d	2	0.73mi
443 Nunneley Rd Apt D Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,250	$2.23	43d	1	1.16mi
6377 Oak Way Unit B Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	551	$1,295	$2.35	13d	1	1.28mi
5848 Black Olive Dr Unit 758 Willow A Paradise, CA	1.0	1.0	711	$1,325	$1.86	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,500 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,500 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $69,500 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-01-21
    listed $74,900 Active 1533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1533 chars)

    Seller is motivated and seller carry may be available. Please bring any reasonable offer. Welcome to this nearly new manufactured home, completed in 2022 and located in the heart of the rapidly growing community of Paradise. Offering approximately 720 square feet, this well-designed home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a desirable split-bedroom floor plan and a bright, great-room layout that flows seamlessly between the living room, kitchen, and dining area. Modern finishes shine throughout, including stone-look laminate countertops, stylish cabinetry, sleek black appliances, carpeted bedrooms, and durable wood-look vinyl flooring in the main living spaces. The home feels fresh, clean, and move-in ready, making it an affordable and attractive option for comfortable living. Outside, you’ll appreciate the concrete parking pad with carport, convenient carport, and redwood stairs and landings at both the front and rear entrances. Situated in a family park with a central Paradise location, this home is close to shopping, services, transportation and even guest parking adjacent to the home — everything you need right at your fingertips. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the area’s abundant recreational opportunities, including nearby lakes, hiking and biking trails, fishing, ATV and dirt-bike riding, canoeing, kayaking, and more. Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity to own a nearly new home in a thriving community — come take a look and see why this one just might feel like home.

19. 1989-01-13
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $6,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $5,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-78.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 1989-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,726 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.