1346 Chisos Way · Forney, TX 75126

$312,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,671 sqft · Land public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2024 6,011 sqft lot $187/sqft · 17% below area Est $375k · 17% under $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1346 Chisos Way in Forney, TX — a well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated near a quiet cul-de-sac. Inside, you’ll find a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, a spacious pantry, and a functional island that serves as the heart of the home — perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or gathering with friends and family. The open layout allows the kitchen to flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a comfortable space for both everyday living and entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends throughout the main living areas, bathrooms, and utility room, offering durability with a clean, updated look. The primary suite provides a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Out back, enjoy a generously sized backyard complete with board-on-board fencing for added privacy and a covered patio ideal for relaxing evenings or weekend cookouts. Whether you’re looking for a great starter home or a strong investment opportunity, this property checks the boxes. Las Lomas stands out for its impressive amenities, including scenic hiking and biking trails, eight community gathering spaces, and a fully equipped clubhouse — perfect for active lifestyles and community connection. Seller willing to offer $10,000 towards buyer rate buy down or closing costs. Additional move in ready homes available. Contact listing agent for more info.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious pantry
• Functional island

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 737 students, 50% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,748 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.17%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,585
• List price: $312,500
• Delta: -16.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-110,321
• Equity at exit: $46,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.07×
• Total profit: $-181,434
• Equity at exit: $27,019

Cash invested: $87,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax from tax record: −$832 /mo · $9,987/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$66
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,376

Max offer price $199,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-710	-5% $-799	+0% $-887	+5% $-976	+10% $-1,064
Rent	-10% $-1,065	-5% $-976	+0% $-887	+5% $-798	+10% $-709
Rate	-1.0pp $-730	-0.5pp $-808	base $-887	+0.5pp $-968	+1.0pp $-1,050

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,125
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1374 Chisos Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,250	$1.33	3d	1	0.16mi
12200 Helms Trl Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,885	$2.15	0d	1	0.76mi
1003 Windmill Farms Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$2,170	$2.01	0d	36	0.93mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$1,999	$1.21	45d	1	1.08mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,250	$1.36	7d	1	1.08mi
1111 Cumberland Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	45d	1	1.10mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	26d	1	1.11mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	5d	1	1.11mi
1201 Cumberland Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2077	$2,100	$1.01	9d	1	1.22mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	45d	1	1.25mi
1836 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,450	$1.29	1d	1	1.28mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	9d	1	1.35mi
1019 Chelsea Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,205	$1.20	1d	1	1.39mi
1112 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,880	$1.27	1d	1	1.41mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,725	$1.11	9d	1	1.42mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,895	$1.20	45d	1	1.42mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	45d	1	1.45mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	45d	1	1.46mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $66 · $792/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $312,500 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,500 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,500 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,500 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,500 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,500 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,500 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,500 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $312,500 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,500 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,500 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,500 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,500 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,500 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $312,500 Active 1469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1469 chars)

    Welcome to 1346 Chisos Way in Forney, TX — a well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated near a quiet cul-de-sac. Inside, you’ll find a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, a spacious pantry, and a functional island that serves as the heart of the home — perfect for meal prep, casual dining, or gathering with friends and family. The open layout allows the kitchen to flow seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a comfortable space for both everyday living and entertaining. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends throughout the main living areas, bathrooms, and utility room, offering durability with a clean, updated look. The primary suite provides a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Out back, enjoy a generously sized backyard complete with board-on-board fencing for added privacy and a covered patio ideal for relaxing evenings or weekend cookouts. Whether you’re looking for a great starter home or a strong investment opportunity, this property checks the boxes. Las Lomas stands out for its impressive amenities, including scenic hiking and biking trails, eight community gathering spaces, and a fully equipped clubhouse — perfect for active lifestyles and community connection. Seller willing to offer $10,000 towards buyer rate buy down or closing costs. Additional move in ready homes available. Contact listing agent for more info.

17. 2025-09-30
    historical
18. 2025-07-11
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,987 · $832/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,987 · $832/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,505
• − Property taxes: −$9,987
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$16,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,894
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $312,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $325,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+136.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,987 · +626.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.