311 Rustic Dr · Pasadena, TX 77502

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1948 7,801 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location, Endless Potential! READY FOR NEW INVESTOR!! Property Selling AS IS. Great location and great potential. This charming property could be your ideal starter home or a lucrative rental investment. Come and look at this 4-bedroom and 2-bathroom. This one needs work inside and out to bring it back to livable condition. The area is surrounded by a few shopping centers and restaurants nearby. Please call and schedule your private tour. Don’t miss your chance—come take a look and imagine the possibilities!

Key facts

• 7,801 sq ft lot
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.38%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Calvin St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,031 (-1%)	2mo	$175,000	$170	67
112 Allendale Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	14mo	$199,000	$199	64
207 Calvin St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+5%)	2mo	$139,900	$128	62
1402 Firwood Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-1%)	11mo	$199,900	$193	57
140 W Houston Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-12%)	13mo	$149,999	$163	56
1214 Eastman St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+15%)	11mo	$193,500	$162	49
112 Denham Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-8%)	10mo	$85,000	$89	49
707 Cardinal Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,165 (+12%)	16mo	$190,000	$163	44
720 Oriole Ln	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,103 (+6%)	18mo	$189,000	$171	40
318 Denham Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (+10%)	20mo	$149,900	$131	39
1504 Birchwood Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+5%)	21mo	$160,000	$146	35
1102 Vince St	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,194 (+15%)	17mo	$159,999	$134	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $17,346
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $53,372
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77502

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,694/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $822

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Allendale Rd Pasadena, TX	4.0	2.0	1275	$1,215	$0.95	22d	1	0.35mi
112 Allendale Rd Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,085	$0.92	24d	1	0.35mi
112 Allendale Rd Pasadena, TX	4.0	2.0	1275	$1,215	$0.95	44d	1	0.35mi
403 Garner Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.5	910	$1,130	$1.24	44d	2	0.48mi
1009 Richey St Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,499	$1.69	3d	26	0.64mi
1007 Spooner St Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,650	$1.40	44d	1	0.67mi
910 Main St Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$925	$1.30	44d	2	0.74mi
1129 Witter St Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$1,075	$1.24	44d	1	0.80mi
621 Richey St Unit 654 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,332	$1.21	3d	1	0.92mi
621 Richey St Unit 424 Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	770	$1,040	$1.35	5d	1	0.92mi
1000 Curtis Ave Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,274	$1.71	5d	14	0.94mi
1111 Queens Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	724	$1,255	$1.73	5d	1	0.96mi
1117 Queens Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	874	$1,075	$1.23	44d	1	0.97mi
1006 Valerie Ave Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.5	983	$1,450	$1.48	44d	1	1.04mi
1514 Allen Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$1,715	$2.03	2d	24	1.25mi
412 N 8th St Unit 2 South Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.27mi
301 Halkies Rd South Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,135	$1.55	3d	7	1.30mi
407 S Richey St Unit 440 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	13d	1	1.38mi
407 S Richey St Unit 2162 Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$890	$1.11	5d	1	1.38mi
407 S Richey St Unit 510 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,032	$1.03	3d	1	1.38mi
407 Richey St Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	21d	13	1.39mi
407 S Richey St Unit 2047 Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$882	$1.10	3d	1	1.39mi
407 S Richey St Unit 3047 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,075	$1.07	11d	1	1.39mi
101 S Allen-Genoa Rd South Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	24d	1	1.42mi
101 S Allen-Genoa Rd Unit 167A South Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	44d	1	1.42mi
101 S Allen-Genoa Rd Unit 197 South Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	910	$1,300	$1.43	44d	1	1.42mi
101 S Allen-Genoa Rd Unit 192A South Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	1.42mi
1413 George St Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,695	$1.70	5d	1	1.45mi
1110 Parkside Dr Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,167	$1.04	44d	1	1.48mi
1034 W Village Ct Unit C Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$945	$1.29	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-03-21
    status Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Great Location, Endless Potential! READY FOR NEW INVESTOR!! Property Selling AS IS. Great location and great potential. This charming property could be your ideal starter home or a lucrative rental investment. Come and look at this 4-bedroom and 2-bathroom. This one needs work inside and out to bring it back to livable condition. The area is surrounded by a few shopping centers and restaurants nearby. Please call and schedule your private tour. Don’t miss your chance—come take a look and imagine the possibilities!

15. 2026-03-20
    historical 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Great Location, Endless Potential! READY FOR NEW INVESTOR!! Property Selling AS IS. Great location and great potential. This charming property could be your ideal starter home or a lucrative rental investment. Come and look at this 4-bedroom and 2-bathroom. This one needs work inside and out to bring it back to livable condition. The area is surrounded by a few shopping centers and restaurants nearby. Please call and schedule your private tour. Don’t miss your chance—come take a look and imagine the possibilities!

16. 2025-12-29
    listed $99,900 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Great Location, Endless Potential! READY FOR NEW INVESTOR!! Property Selling AS IS. Great location and great potential. This charming property could be your ideal starter home or a lucrative rental investment. Come and look at this 4-bedroom and 2-bathroom. This one needs work inside and out to bring it back to livable condition. The area is surrounded by a few shopping centers and restaurants nearby. Please call and schedule your private tour. Don’t miss your chance—come take a look and imagine the possibilities!

17. 2025-12-20
    historical
18. 2025-10-21
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2025-04-30
    historical
20. 2024-08-05
    price $159,000
21. 2024-06-13
    price $190,000
22. 2024-03-06
    listed $269,990 Active
23. 2023-10-03
    soldstatus
24. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2023-09-25
    status Pending
26. 2023-09-21
    status Option Pending
27. 2023-09-17
    price $130,000
28. 2023-08-30
    price $149,000
29. 2023-08-30
    status Active
30. 2023-08-23
    status Option Pending
31. 2023-08-19
    listed $169,000 Active
32. 2018-08-31
    historical
33. 2018-08-16
    listed $95,000 Active
34. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus
35. 2002-11-22
    soldstatus
36. 1998-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,694 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,694 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,694
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $4,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,190
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,371
• Household income: $62,500
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 37% White 12% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.12%
• Current HPI: 278.9293
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2023-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-09-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-17 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-08-16 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,694 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.