Laurel Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,888 sqft · Townhouse · 428 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

Key facts

• Upstairs flex space
• Sloped ceiling
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SLOPED CEILING
• UPSTAIRS FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $339,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $362,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $340k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $296,367 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,490
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -6.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2009 Aldrich Mews	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,888 (0%)	2mo	$354,990	$188	97
2016 Aldrich Mews	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,865 (-1%)	0mo	$369,990	$198	97
2025 Aldrich Mews	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,888 (0%)	5mo	$340,000	$180	96
2005 Aldrich Mews	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,852 (-2%)	1mo	$335,900	$181	95
2000 Aldrich Mews	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,867 (-1%)	8mo	$389,000	$208	90
2021 Aldrich Mews	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,852 (-2%)	12mo	$399,000	$215	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-77,811
• Equity at exit: $54,048

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-114,573
• Equity at exit: $31,342

Cash invested: $101,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$453 /mo · $5,437/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,171

Max offer price $338,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $-39	+0% $-164	+5% $-289	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-281	+0% $-164	+5% $-47	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-72	base $-164	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,622
• Closing costs: $10,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	20d	1	0.73mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,682	$1.94	0d	12	0.75mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	0d	1	0.81mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2102	$3,445	$1.64	45d	1	0.85mi
1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,500	$1.32	45d	1	0.95mi
1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,893	$1.89	0d	61	0.97mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	45d	1	1.02mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	45d	1	1.09mi
2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,962	$1.84	0d	47	1.20mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2503	$2,695	$1.08	14d	1	1.30mi
912 Slate Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1879	$2,690	$1.43	45d	1	1.39mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,900 Active 428 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 422 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 420 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,900 Active 414 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 411 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 410 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 409 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 408 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 407 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $339,900 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

16. 2025-11-02
    status Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

17. 2025-11-02
    price $379,990 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

18. 2025-10-31
    historical 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

19. 2025-04-17
    listed $376,990 Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Three bedroom Townhome with a tasteful sloped ceiling in the Primary bedroom and upstairs flex space

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,305
• − Property taxes: −$5,437
• − Insurance: −$1,812
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,845
• − Management: −$2,845
• − Depreciation: −$10,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $9/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This townhouse requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a good condition, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Signs of wear and tear suggest major appliance replacement is needed.
• Major bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear and tear suggest major fixture replacement is needed.
• Major flooring — Signs of wear and tear suggest major flooring replacement is needed.
• Major paint — Signs of wear and tear suggest major paint job is needed.
• Major siding — Signs of wear and tear suggest major siding replacement is needed.
• Major windows — Signs of wear and tear suggest major window replacement is needed.
• Major HVAC system — Signs of wear and tear suggest major HVAC system replacement is needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale kitchen appliances — Up-to-date appliances will attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal.
• Resale bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal.
• Resale flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale paint — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale siding — New siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale windows — New windows will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Resale HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Signs of wear and tear suggest major appliance replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Signs of wear and tear suggest major fixture replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Signs of wear and tear suggest major flooring replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Signs of wear and tear suggest major paint job is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Signs of wear and tear suggest major siding replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Signs of wear and tear suggest major window replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Signs of wear and tear suggest major HVAC system replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale kitchen appliances — Up-to-date appliances will attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal. ↑
• Resale bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal. ↑
• Resale flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale paint — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale siding — New siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale windows — New windows will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-04-17 Listed $376,990 Zillow