183 3rd St · Ross, TX 76640

$134,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1960 7,492 sqft lot Est $188k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your beautifully updated home in the heart of Elm Mott! This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence combines modern upgrades with timeless comfort—perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Step inside to discover fresh interior paint, new flooring, stylish fixtures, and updated finishes throughout. The bright, open living area flows seamlessly into a contemporary kitchen featuring new cabinets, countertops and backsplash—ideal for both daily living and entertaining. Outside, enjoy a spacious yard with plenty of potential for gardening, a play area, or future expansion. Located just minutes from I-35, Baylor University, Magnolia, and Downtown Waco, this home o

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Contemporary kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• MINUTES FROM I-35

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,045 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Connally ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #781 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Connally El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 374 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 68% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($926 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,980 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,544
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 3rd St	0.00mi	2/1.0	952 (0%)	1mo	$134,000	$141	100
3633 Katy	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,084 (+14%)	4mo	$213,500	$197	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $39,421
• Equity at exit: $60,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $107,691
• Equity at exit: $92,856

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76640

• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,094

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $404	+0% $366	+5% $328	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $304	+0% $366	+5% $427	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $400	base $366	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-12
   listed $134,000 Active
4. 2025-08-04
   soldstatus
5. 2025-07-02
   soldstatus
6. 2025-07-02
   soldstatus
7. 2025-07-02
   soldstatus
8. 2025-06-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,188/yr (+$99/mo · 94.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $2,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $3,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connally ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814970
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,388
• Composite: 16.9/100
• National rank: #9141
• State rank: #781 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ross

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1045
• US rank: #18577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,958

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $134,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,264 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.