4012 Buena Vista Dr S · Bradenton, FL 34222

$14,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice mobile home in Colony Cove, a 55 and over community with many amenities, six pools, shuffleboard, Pickleball, 2 gyms and many activities. This home is turnkey minus a few personal items seen in the photos. Will have all the essentials. There is a shed in the lanai for storage and there & acirc; & euro; & trade; s also a washer and dryer. There are no mobile homes behind the house. Lot rent $1206 per month. Must be park approved.

Key facts

• 2 gyms
• Pickleball
• Shed in the lanai

Tags

• COLONY COVE
• SIX POOLS
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• PICKLEBALL
• 2 GYMS
• SHED IN THE LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 123.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $100 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $435 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,282 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 13.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 123.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 418.81%
• DSCR: 19.63
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.66×
• Total profit: $87,927
• Equity at exit: $2,162

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 48.51×
• Total profit: $192,892
• Equity at exit: $1,254

Cash invested: $4,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$76
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $1,417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $127

Max offer price $14,500

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,427	-5% $1,422	+0% $1,417	+5% $1,412	+10% $1,407
Rent	-10% $1,265	-5% $1,341	+0% $1,417	+5% $1,493	+10% $1,569
Rate	-1.0pp $1,424	-0.5pp $1,421	base $1,417	+0.5pp $1,413	+1.0pp $1,409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,625
• Closing costs: $435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	25d	1	0.09mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.21mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	25d	1	0.29mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	0.51mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	0.61mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	4d	1	0.86mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	1.05mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	1.08mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,800	$1.98	22d	1	1.10mi
9922 52nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,250	$1.77	4d	1	1.25mi
10610 Eddy Cir Parrish, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,095	$1.94	4d	89	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,500 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,500 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,500 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $14,500 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $17,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $17,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $17,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $17,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$812
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$72
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$422
• Taxable income: $17,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,280
• After-tax cash flow: $12,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $17,500 FSBO.com