471 Almond Dr #4 · Lodi, CA 95240

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1983 Fair condition 7.16 ac lot Est $50k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Almond Drive Estates, a senior community offering comfort, convenience, and a variety of community amenities. This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home features a spacious living area filled with natural light and a functional layout designed for easy living. The kitchen includes a dining bar that opens to the living space, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The bathroom offers a tub/shower combination, and additional features include a large covered front porch, covered carport, and a storage shed for added convenience. Residents of Almond Drive Estates enjoy access to community amenities including a pool, clubhouse with full kitchen, library, billiards room, and

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Covered carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• DINING BAR
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $770 (land lease indicated)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V outlet in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide; Built in 1983; Bainbridge II model by Kaufman & Broad Home Systems
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse; Regular-shaped lot; Aluminum skirting

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room; Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters; Dining space in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.63%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,232
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
471 Almond Dr #73	0.07mi	2/1.0	720 (-1%)	22mo	$50,000	$69	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $42,279
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $101,460
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $911	-5% $887	+0% $863	+5% $840	+10% $816
Rent	-10% $729	-5% $796	+0% $863	+5% $930	+10% $997
Rate	-1.0pp $898	-0.5pp $881	base $863	+0.5pp $846	+1.0pp $827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,750	$2.31	24d	3	0.12mi
445 Almond Dr Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	756	$1,725	$2.28	20d	3	0.12mi
200 E Vine St Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,195	$1.91	44d	1	0.78mi
1720 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$2,050	$3.04	2d	2	0.86mi
321 W Century Blvd Unit 1 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	440	$1,175	$2.67	11d	1	0.89mi
321 W Century Blvd Apt 30 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,295	$2.27	24d	1	0.90mi
321 W Century Blvd Apt 41 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	440	$1,175	$2.67	24d	1	0.90mi
1826 S Hutchins St Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,750	$2.41	2d	3	0.91mi
735 S Sacramento St Apt 3 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	475	$895	$1.88	4d	1	1.00mi
619 S Sacramento St Unit 619 Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,800	$2.77	44d	1	1.08mi
515 E Walnut St Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	20d	1	1.32mi
835 W Harney Ln Lodi, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,195	$2.61	2d	7	1.33mi
517 E Pine St #2 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,195	$2.39	4d	1	1.47mi
537 E Pine St Unit 4 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	350	$895	$2.56	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $9,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,364
• After-tax cash flow: $7,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint interior walls, and replace carpeted flooring. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major kitchen flooring — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major bathroom flooring — dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeted flooring — new flooring will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen flooring · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom flooring · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeted flooring — new flooring will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B