118 Autumn Ln · Falcon Mesa, TX 78076

$60,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1994 13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Well-kept 2BR/2BA manufactured home located in a gated 55+ retirement community. This home offers inviting curb appeal and a comfortable layout ideal for full-time living or a seasonal retreat. Enjoy outdoor living with two decks, one in the front and one in the back, along with a covered porch and covered carport for added convenience. Detached workshop provides extra space for hobbies, tools, or storage. This property is a great opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered carport
• Detached workshop

Tags

• TWO DECKS
• COVERED PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,652 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zapata County ISD (town): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #767 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Zapata County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.31%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $31,253
• Equity at exit: $25,665

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $77,470
• Equity at exit: $38,561

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78076

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $60,000 Active
17. 2014-03-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$970
• After-tax cash flow: $3,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zapata County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846710
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,189
• Composite: 18.09/100
• National rank: #8974
• State rank: #767 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falcon Mesa

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #1652
• US rank: #27633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falcon Mesa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,085

Population outlook (Zapata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,795 people
• By 2030: 14,837 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 14,759 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 14,316 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 11,647 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 7,265 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 52% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 89%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Zapata

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.5% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -58.0pp toward R · 2008: 35.6pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+5.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+43.2 2008: D+35.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 117.0315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $60,000 LAOR
• 2014-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.