2050 W State Route 89a -- #294 · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 1992 ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newly Updated, Newer Interior & Exterior paint, Oversized kitchen pantry, electric oven with glass top, lots of nice windows & skylights, primary bedroom has a his/hers walk-in closet, new carpet in the primary bedroom, split floor plan, reverse Osmosis & Water Softener, screened in front porch, ceiling fans were replaced, storage shed has electricity, parking is 3 spaces, 2 covered garage spaces, mature landscaping, Cypress trees.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Reverse osmosis
• 5 parking spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED KITCHEN PANTRY
• HIS HERS WALK IN CLOSET
• REVERSE OSMOSIS
• WATER SOFTENER
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE SHED HAS ELECTRICITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount $850
• HOA & community: Land lease with monthly fee; Association covers sewer and trash; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), pickleball courts, tennis courts, fitness center, community media room, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen / 220V electric available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Heated spa; Shed(s); Sprinklers in front; Corner lot; Desert landscaping in back; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic front watering timer; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric wall oven; Reverse osmosis; Walk-in pantry; 220V outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Vaulted ceilings; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Tub with jets; Skylights; Dual-pane windows; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood Community School (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,316/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.80%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $620,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Quail Run Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,059 (+3%)	6mo	$650,000	$316	63
1545 Chateau Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,773 (-11%)	5mo	$480,000	$271	61
998 Sterling Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,845 (-8%)	11mo	$620,930	$337	57
1462 Sangria Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-7%)	8mo	$620,300	$334	55
1900 Old Jerome Hwy	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-8%)	9mo	$575,000	$311	55
1472 Sanria Dr	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,941 (-3%)	17mo	$585,630	$302	53
2001 Crossroads Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-5%)	15mo	$550,000	$291	52
1500 Black Bear Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-9%)	3mo	$535,000	$294	49
1840 Old Jerome Hwy	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-12%)	16mo	$542,500	$310	44
1581 Buena Vista Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-13%)	4mo	$530,000	$305	42
450 Casner Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-12%)	16mo	$530,000	$303	37
1749 Silver Spur Cir	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-14%)	15mo	$550,000	$321	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $26,078
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $67,897
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
992 Sterling Ln Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,395	$1.45	21d	1	0.44mi
1121 Old Jerome Hwy Clarkdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1981	$2,185	$1.10	21d	1	1.07mi
255 S Cottonwood Ranch Rd Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	13d	1	1.12mi
832 Eugene Rd Clarkdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,700	$1.58	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $139,000
18. 2026-03-01
    price $159,000
19. 2026-01-26
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $8,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,097
• After-tax cash flow: $8,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $169,900 ARMLS