478 Railroad St · Bergland, MI 49910

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1947 6,098 sqft lot $124/sqft · 46% below area Est $274k · 46% under · waterfront

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy and very nice 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a desirable corner lot with a Lake Gogebic view! First floor bedroom, bathroom and laundry and beautiful laminate flooring through the living and dining rooms. The second-floor features 2 spacious bedrooms and a 1/2 bath making this area perfect for the kids or house guests to have their own space. The front deck features maintenance-free composite decking and the fenced yard is ideal for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The property also features a 1-car detached garage for extra storage and parking. You can enjoy tons of outdoor recreation with the snowmobile/ATV trail right across the street and Lake Gogebic is just a stone's throw away. Lake-view living without lake-front taxes. This is a great year-round home or up-north getaway!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Snowmobile atv trail
• Lake gogebic view

Tags

• LAKE GOGEBIC VIEW
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FENCED YARD
• SNOWMOBILE ATV TRAIL
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Phone available
• Home design: Residential property; 1 1/2-story structure; Built in 1947; Corner lot within city limits; Road frontage (100')
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding with vinyl trim; Fenced yard; Porch; Lake view and interior lake access (Lake Gogebic); Dock/pier facility; All-sports lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (13 x 11) with vinyl flooring; Appliances included: Range/Oven, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (12 x 10) with carpet; Second-floor bedroom (13 x 12) with carpet; Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12 wide) with wood flooring
• Flooring: Carpet in two bedrooms; Wood flooring in one bedroom; Laminate in living and dining areas; Vinyl in kitchen and bathrooms
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom (10 x 5) with vinyl flooring; Second floor lavatory (5 x 5) with vinyl flooring; Total: 1 full bathroom and 1 lavatory
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling listed
• Interior features: Entry; Living room; Formal dining room; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry; Washer and Dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ewen-Trout Creek Consolidated School District (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #510 of 760 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Ontonagon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Ontonagon County population projected at -63% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,855 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,064
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -45.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13376 M64 Hwy	0.86mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,361 (+13%)	10mo	$395,000	$290	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $65,436
• Equity at exit: $118,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $190,990
• Equity at exit: $241,383

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49910

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $145,792

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $24	+0% $-18	+5% $-60	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-63	+0% $-18	+5% $26	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $20	base $-18	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $149,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Cozy and very nice 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a desirable corner lot with a Lake Gogebic view! First floor bedroom, bathroom and laundry and beautiful laminate flooring through the living and dining rooms. The second-floor features 2 spacious bedrooms and a 1/2 bath making this area perfect for the kids or house guests to have their own space. The front deck features maintenance-free composite decking and the fenced yard is ideal for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The property also features a 1-car detached garage for extra storage and parking. You can enjoy tons of outdoor recreation with the snowmobile/ATV trail right across the street and Lake Gogebic is just a stone's throw away. Lake-view living without lake-front taxes. This is a great year-round home or up-north getaway!

19. 2026-05-01
    listed $149,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Cozy and very nice 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home on a desirable corner lot with a Lake Gogebic view! First floor bedroom, bathroom and laundry and beautiful laminate flooring through the living and dining rooms. The second-floor features 2 spacious bedrooms and a 1/2 bath making this area perfect for the kids or house guests to have their own space. The front deck features maintenance-free composite decking and the fenced yard is ideal for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The property also features a 1-car detached garage for extra storage and parking. You can enjoy tons of outdoor recreation with the snowmobile/ATV trail right across the street and Lake Gogebic is just a stone's throw away. Lake-view living without lake-front taxes. This is a great year-round home or up-north getaway!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$62/mo · 94.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$2,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ewen-Trout Creek Consolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 2600014
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,684
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #11747
• State rank: #510 of 760 in MI

Livability — Bergland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bergland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 254

Population outlook (Ontonagon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,621 people
• By 2030: 3,928 · -15.0%
• By 2040: 2,644 · -42.8%
• By 2050: 1,696 · -63.3%
• By 2075: 874 · -81.1%
• By 2100: 697 · -84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 7% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontonagon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.4) · D 34.2% · R 64.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.7pp · 2024: -30.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.4 2020: R+25.4 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.1 2008: D+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.55%
• Current HPI: 112.8392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,000 UPAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $795 · +74.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.