104 Lilly Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 0.82 ac lot $144/sqft · 45% below area Est $469k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A rare opportunity to secure a generous lot and bring this unfinished home to life with your own style and design. The expansive space offers room to create, expand, and truly make it yours. Ideally situated near major highways—an outstanding option for both buyers and investors. Nicely located near major highways.

Key facts

• Expansive space
• Generous lot
• Unfinished home

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• UNFINISHED HOME
• EXPANSIVE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,331 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $468,780
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -44.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Verbena Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	20mo	$285,000	$182	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $133,361
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $399,889
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,213/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $236,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-60	+0% $-133	+5% $-207	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-214	+0% $-133	+5% $-53	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-67	base $-133	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2020-10-27
    soldstatus
16. 2020-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,213 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,545/yr (+$129/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,213
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $-124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+94.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,213 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.